Saudi Arabia impeding Trump effort to end Arab-Jewish conflict

[Published 31 August 2020]

Saudi Arabia’s refusal to accept President Trump’s 2020 peace plan to replace the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative (API) was the decisive factor in Secretary of State Pompeo’s unsuccessful attempts to convince Sudan, Bahrain and Oman to follow the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and sign peace treaties with Israel.

Saudi Arabia’s late King Abdullah was the architect of the API which requires Israel’s total withdrawal from Gaza, Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and the West Bank (Judea and Samaria).

Sudan, Bahrain and Oman closed ranks behind Saudi Arabia — refusing to jettison a plan drawn up 18 years ago that has since been overtaken by the following two major events:

• The April 14, 2004 letter from President Bush to Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon —overwhelmingly endorsed by the House of Representatives 407-9 on 23 June 2004 and the Senate 95-3 the next day.

Bush’s letter—given to back Israel’s unilateral disengagement from Gaza - made it clear that America did not consider it realistic for Israel to have to comply with the API’s territorial demands:
“In light of new realities on the ground, including already existing major Israeli populations centers, it is unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final status negotiations will be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949, and all previous efforts to negotiate a two-state solution have reached the same conclusion.”

• The 2007 Annapolis International Conference convened by President Bush and attended by Russia, China, the European Union, the United Nations, the Organization of the Islamic Conference, the Palestinian Authority, the Arab League, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Sudan, Oman, the UAE, another 7 Arab States and about another 30 non-Arab states.

Israel’s then Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced Israel’s readiness to resume negotiations with the Palestinian Authority ” based on previous agreements between us, U.N. Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338, the road map and the April 14, 2004 letter of President Bush to the Prime Minister of Israel.”

No mention was made of the API forming part of those renewed negotiations — nor could it be - since its total territorial withdrawal demands were undercut by the Bush Congress-endorsed letter.

Those Arab nations and entities — indeed all parties present at the Conference - failed to object or demur to the new territorial reality of partial Israeli withdrawal which the Bush letter had engendered.

The release of President Trump’s peace plan in January 2020 has built on President Bush’s 2004 letter - allocating sovereignty in about 30% of the West Bank to Israel with sovereignty in the remaining 70% to be negotiated between Israel and the PLO to enable the creation of a democratic Palestinian Arab state between Israel and Jordan for the first time in recorded history.

Saudi Arabia’s insistence on Israel’s total territorial withdrawal stipulated by the API as the price to be paid for Saudi Arabia signing a peace treaty with Israel has been seemingly backed by Sudan,Bahrain and Oman to prolong the 100 years-old Arab-Jewish conflict.

The Trump vision for peace is a plan that can end that conflict. It needs to be embraced by all who attended the Annapolis Conference — especially by Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Bahrain and Oman now joining the UAE as real trailblazers for peace.

Trump did not present his meticulously detailed deal of the century to see it rejected by the Arabs before its implementation was even attempted.

Changing Saudi Arabia’s mind can be expected as top Trump aides fly to the region this week.

Failure to do so could see Trump administering his proven shockwave therapy to jolt Sudan,Bahrain and Oman from backing Saudi Arabia’s continuing rejection of Trump’s plan.


Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka ” Dry Bones” - one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Saudi Arabia attempts to derail Trump’s deal of the century

[Published 23 August 2020]

It didn’t take long for the euphoria to dissipate after President Trump announced the United Arab Emirates (UAE) decision to establish diplomatic relations with Israel.

Trump’s assessment was decidedly upbeat:

“Now that the ice has been broken, I expect more Arab and Muslim countries will follow the United Arab Emirates’ lead”

Trump’s expectations were dashed within days.

Sudanese acting Foreign Minister Omar Qamar al-Din dismissed Haidar Badawi from his position as spokesman and head of the media division at the ministry after Badawi said Sudan was:

"looking forward to concluding a peace agreement with Israel… There is no reason to continue hostility between Sudan and Israel."

Saudi Arabia’s Prince Turki al-Faisal — responding to President Trump’s confident prediction —made clear the price Saudi Arabia would exact from Israel for establishing diplomatic relations:

“Any Arab state that is considering following the UAE should demand in return a price, and it should be an expensive price. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has set a price for concluding peace between Israel and the Arabs — it is the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state with Jerusalem as capital, as provided for by the initiative of the late King Abdullah.”

Abdullah’s 2002 Arab League Initiative offered Israel Arab ties in return for full Israeli withdrawal from the Golan Heights, Judea and Samaria (the West Bank), Gaza, East Jerusalem and resolution of the Palestinian refugee issue according to UN General Assembly Resolution 194.

Al-Faisal voiced understanding for the UAE’s decision — noting the UAE had secured a key condition — a halt to Israel applying sovereignty in Judea and Samaria as designated in Trump’s Peace Plan.

Al-Faisal — a former ambassador to Washington and ex-intelligence chief — holds no government office now but remains influential as current chairman of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies.

Al-Faisal’s comments endorsed those made by Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan a few days earlier when confirming Saudi Arabia remained committed to Abdullah’s 2002 Arab Peace Initiative.

“Saudi Arabia affirms its commitment to peace as a strategic option based on the Arab GazPeace Initiatives”

The 2002 Arab Peace Initiative is poles apart and irreconcilable with Trump’s 2020 Plan calling for Israeli sovereignty in 30% of Judea and Samaria and a Palestinian State in Gaza and possibly the remaining 70% of Judea and Samaria.

There is no prospect for ending the Arab-Jewish conflict based on the Arab Peace Initiative — as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made very clear.

The 100 years old Jewish-Arab conflict could be possibly ended if the Arab League gets behind Trump’s Plan and the Palestine Liberation Organization announced its readiness to negotiate with Israel on that Plan.

The Arab League however made its position clear in a statement issued by Foreign Ministers of its member states on February 1, 2020 that it:

“rejects the US-Israeli ‘deal of the century’ considering that it does not meet the minimum rights and aspirations of Palestinian people” whilst vowing “not to ... cooperate with the US administration to implement this plan.”

The PLO was equally as adamant as PLO chief Mahmoud Abbas exploded:

“After the nonsense that we heard today, we say a thousand no’s to the ‘Deal of The Century’”

Trump has seemingly been misled in believing Sudan and Saudi Arabia would quickly replicate the UAE-Israel deal. Their failure to do so could soon see Trump giving Israel his permission to immediately restore sovereignty in that part of the biblical heartland of the Jewish People detailed in Trump’s plan.

Another opportunity to end the long-running conflict will have gone begging due to Arab intransigence.


Author’s note: The cartoon—commissioned exclusively for this article—is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”—one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators—whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

PLO sidelined as Trump brokers deal between Israel and UAE

[Published 16 August 2020]

The outright refusal by the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) to negotiate with Israel on President Trump’s Vision for Peace has seen Trump sideline the PLO by brokering a peace deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

Trump’s spectacular breakthrough now sees three Arab States — Egypt, Jordan and the UAE — that could replace the PLO in negotiations with Israel on Trump’s Peace Plan to end the Jewish-Arab conflict that still remains unresolved after 100 years.

The White House statement announcing the diplomatic rapprochement has ominous portents for the PLO:

“The United States and Israel recall with gratitude the appearance of the United Arab Emirates at the White House reception held on January 27, 2020, at which President Trump presented his Vision, and express their appreciation for United Arab Emirates’ related supportive statements. The parties will continue their efforts in this regard to achieve a just, comprehensive and enduring resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”

Significantly no mention is made of creating an independent Palestinian Arab state between Israel and Jordan — the two successor states to the League of Nations 1922 Mandate for Palestine.

The Mandate had laid the groundwork for the establishment of:

• an Arab state — Transjordan (now Jordan) — in 78% of former Palestine in 1946,
• a Jewish State — Israel — in 17% in 1948

with sovereignty still unresolved in the remaining 5% — Judea and Samaria (West Bank) and Gaza.

Trump’s Vision offered the PLO Gaza and possibly 70% of Judea and Samaria for a second Arab State in former Palestine — in addition to Jordan.

Abbas — who has been demanding 100% for the last 25 years — made his displeasure known in terms that would not have endeared him to Trump:

“I say to Trump and Netanyahu: Jerusalem is not for sale; all our rights are not for sale and are not for bargain. And your deal, the conspiracy, will not pass … We say a thousand no’s to the deal of the century,”

Trump’s offer — spurned so dismissively by Abbas — now seems destined for the dustbin of history.

The UN and European Union’s insistence that the “two-state solution” was the only solution that could end the Jewish-Arab conflict has been debunked as Israel and the UAE begin the path to peaceful co-existence.

Jordan and Egypt’s involvement after a 53 years absence becomes increasingly possible.

Israel’s planned application of sovereignty in the 30% of Judea and Samaria designated in Trump’s plan has been placed on hold — as Trump pointed out in his carefully worded White House statement:

“As a result of this diplomatic breakthrough, and at the request of President Trump with the support of the United Arab Emirates, Israel will suspend declaring sovereignty over areas outlined in the President’s Vision for Peace and focus its efforts now on expanding ties with other countries in the Arab and Muslim world. The United States, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates are confident that additional diplomatic breakthroughs with other nations are possible, and will work together to achieve this goal”..

The operative word is “suspend” - not “abandon”

Once again Israel has made a major concession in pursuing peace by suspending its extension of sovereignty into the Jewish People’s biblical heartland  — specifically designated for reconstitution of the Jewish National Home by the Mandate and preserved until today by article 80 of the United Nations Charter.

A bigger picture beckons as other Arab states could shortly follow the UAE’s decision and establish diplomatic relations with Israel.

Trump’s incredible efforts over the past three years to achieve peace between Jews and Arabs should see his most trenchant critics eating humble pie.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Trump Mapping Committee needs to break its deafening silence

[Published 12 August 2020]

Peace between Jews and Arabs after 100 years of unresolved conflict - promised with President Trump’s release of his deal of the century on 28 January - has stalled - with the continuing failure to produce a map translating Trump’s conceptual plan into an attainable reality.

Trump’s plan (See map below) proposed:

• Israeli sovereignty in about 30% of Judea and Samaria (West Bank)
• The remaining 70% plus Gaza providing “a realistic two-state solution that resolves the risk of Palestinian statehood to Israel’s security”

Incredibly Trump announced:

“My vision presents a “win-win” opportunity for both sides, Today, Israel is taking a giant step toward peace. Yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu informed me that he is willing to endorse the vision as the basis for direct negotiations—and, I will say, the General [Gantz] also endorsed, and very strongly—with the Palestinians. A historic breakthrough. 

This is the first time Israel has authorized the release of a conceptual map, illustrating the territorial compromises it’s willing to make for the cause of peace. And they’ve gone a long way. This is an unprecedented and highly significant development.”

Trump continued:

“We will form a joint committee with Israel to convert the conceptual map into a more detailed and calibrated rendering so that recognition can be immediately achieved. We will also work to create a contiguous territory within the future Palestinian State for when the conditions for statehood are met, including the firm rejection of terrorism.” [Bolding by author]

This joint committee began its work just two weeks later in February - but since then little has been heard from the current Committee:

• Israeli representatives - Knesset Speaker Yariv Levin (Likud), National Security Adviser Meir Ben Shabbat, Prime Minister’s Office director Ronen Peretz, and Ambassador to the US Ron Dermer on the Israeli side; and
• US representatives - Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, his adviser Aryeh Lightstone, and the US National Security Council’s Israel and Palestinian affairs director Scott Leith.

Leith had been unable to join the Committee in Israel because of Covid 19 until he visited Israel in June with Avi Berkowitz, US Special Representative for International Negotiations.

Complications and differences could be holding up the plan’s finalisation such as those detailed in June by Lior Schillat – the director of the Jerusalem Institute of Policy Research:

“When we say mapping, it isn’t just opening up Google Maps. It means applying complex geographic information system layers that display land ownership and land use. It’s true that there aren’t any new mountains that have suddenly appeared in [the northern West Bank], but there are building plans in progress that need to be accounted for. The territory is extremely complex and dynamic. 

The decisions being made today are very politically charged, and therefore the people involved are from the political echelon. However, this may be why they’re having a hard time completing the task in the amount of time [by July, 1].”

Ambassador Friedman had optimistically predicted in February:

“We’re going to go through a mapping process to convert a map which is drawn of more than a million to one into something which really shows on the ground how the territory will be put together 

It’s not unduly difficult, but it’s also not simple, because there are a lot of judgment calls. We don’t want to do this piecemeal.

We want to do it once, holistically, in totality, and get it done right”

Failure to finalise a “detailed and calibrated map” after six months is disturbing.

The Committee needs to break its deafening silence to confirm that Trump’s vision is geographically achievable - not simply a shimmering mirage.

Green light on Judea and Samaria is key to Trump’s re-election

[Published 3 August 2020]

President Trump’s chances of winning another term in November could well turn on his publicly endorsing Israel to immediately implement his Peace Plan restoring Jewish sovereignty in 30% of Judea and Samaria (aka West Bank) after an absence of 3000 years.

Judea and Samaria — the ancient and biblical heartland of the Jewish People — was expressly designated by the League of Nations Mandate for Palestine in 1922 as part of the area within which the Jewish National Home could be reconstituted. That right still survives in 2020 under article 80 of the United Nations Charter.

Republican-voting Jews and white, born-again/evangelical Christians are particularly interested in seeing Trump give Israel the go-ahead. It could be the tipping point in their decision to vote or not vote for Trump. Whether Israel positively responded would then be its decision solely.

Jessica Martinez and Gregory A Smith concluded in their article — “How the faithful voted: A preliminary 2016 analysis”:

“Fully eight-in-ten self-identified white, born-again/evangelical Christians say they voted for Trump, while just 16% voted for Clinton. Trump’s 65-percentage-point margin of victory among voters in this group—which includes self-described Protestants, as well as Catholics, Mormons and others—matched or exceeded the victory margins of George W. Bush in 2004, John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012…
… Like Hispanic Catholics, religious “nones” and Jews were strong Clinton supporters. Indeed, nearly seven-in-ten religious “nones” voted for Clinton, as did 71% of Jews.”

Only 72% of white, born-again evangelical/ Christians currently approve Trump’s handling of his job, according to a Pew Research Centre survey conducted June 16 to 22 — a decline of 6 percentage points since April. Actioning his peace plan could see Trump’s Evangelical vote restored to its 2016 levels. Delaying its implementation could see Evangelical support decline below 72%.

Strong Jewish support for the Democratic Party has seemingly resulted from intermarriage — last measured at 58% in another 2013 Pew Research survey:

“Intermarriage rates seem to have risen substantially over the last five decades. Among Jewish respondents who have gotten married since 2000, nearly six-in-ten have a non-Jewish spouse. Among those who got married in the 1980s, roughly four-in-ten have a non-Jewish spouse. And among Jews who got married before 1970, just 17% have a non-Jewish spouse.

American Jews merging their Jewish identity with their non-Jewish partner’s identity over the last 50 years has seen their families increasingly vote for the Democratic Party — safe in the knowledge that strong bipartisan support for Israel existed between Democrats and Republicans.

However this bipartisan support has been fractured following President Obama’s post-election sell-out of Israel at the United Nations on 23 December 2016 — followed now by stringent criticism of Trump’s Peace Plan by:

• Democrat Senators Elizabeth Warren, Chris Van Hollen, Chris Murphy and Independent Bernie Sanders.
• 191 Democrat Members of Congress
• The Democratic Party’s Draft 2020 platform—which proclaims:

“Democrats oppose any unilateral steps by either side—including annexation—that undermine prospects for two states”

The Democratic Party now opposes Israel unilaterally reconstituting the Jewish National Home in Judea and Samaria — a legal entitlement vested in the Jewish People for the last 100 years but unattainable until now under Trump’s Peace Plan.

Many Jews who voted for the Democratic Party in 2016 would be alarmed at seeing their previous bilateral comfort zone collapsing. The choice they thought they would never have to make has now arrived.

Trump can help regain his high 2016 Evangelical Christian vote whilst increasing his very low 2016 Jewish vote by green-lighting Israel’s immediate application of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria -considerably boosting his prospects for re-election.

Author’s note: The cartoon—commissioned exclusively for this article—is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”—one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators—whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog.