Israel's next election must focus on Judea and Samaria – not Bibi

[Published 8 January 2020]

Israel’s next election due on March 2, 2020 must focus on the future of Judea and Samaria – not the future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (Bibi).

A window of opportunity has been granted to allow Israel to extend its sovereignty into Judea and Samaria following US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s statement on November 19, 2019:

“Turning now to Israel, the Trump administration is reversing the Obama administration’s approach towards Israeli settlements.

US public statements on settlement activities in the West Bank have been inconsistent over decades. In 1978, the Carter administration categorically concluded that Israel’s establishment of civilian settlements was inconsistent with international law. However, in 1981, President Reagan disagreed with that conclusion and stated that he didn’t believe that the settlements were inherently illegal.

Subsequent administrations recognized that unrestrained settlement activity could be an obstacle to peace, but they wisely and prudently recognized that dwelling on legal positions didn’t advance peace. However, in December 2016, at the very end of the previous administration, Secretary Kerry changed decades of this careful, bipartisan approach by publicly reaffirming the supposed illegality of settlements.

After carefully studying all sides of the legal debate, this administration agrees with President Reagan. The establishment of Israeli civilian settlements in the West Bank is not per se inconsistent with international law.”

The United Nations General Assembly will object to any such unilateral extension of Israel’s sovereignty. However it will unequivocally delineate the minimum area in Judea and Samaria which Israel will be claiming in any future negotiations with Arab interlocutors to end the 100 years old Arab-Jewish conflict.

For these outcomes to occur — all political parties contesting Israel’s next election need to bring before the electorate their respective parties detailed proposals on the extension of Israeli sovereignty into:

1. the whole,

2. part or

3.none

of Judea and Samaria — accompanied by a map designating the areas in which Israeli sovereignty will be extended if they form part of Israel’s next Government.

For far too long Israelis have been at loggerheads with each other as to the extension of Israeli sovereignty into Judea and Samaria. The opportunity to resolve this political logjam during Donald Trump’s Presidency must not be lost.

Should another election deadlock occur for the third time in twelve months — the proposals presented by the respective parties for Judea and Samaria can be the basis for negotiations to form a Government of National Unity.

There will be critics who claim that Israel should not reveal its cards before negotiations actually begin with Arab interlocutors — that by doing so Israel will stymie itself from demanding more of Judea and Samaria.

All proposals should therefore include a rider that the area proposed is the minimum area of Judea and Samaria willing to be accepted in future negotiations and may be increased should changed circumstances to those now prevailing exist when negotiations are undertaken.

Political parties not prepared to inform voters of their proposals can expect to be given the thumbs down by the Israeli electorate. Those who are open and frank in presenting their proposals should find themselves rewarded by the electorate.

Politicians need to resist the temptation to focus their major attention on targeting Bibi — Israel’s longest serving Prime Minister — from becoming Israel’s next Prime Minister as he personally grapples with three indictments laid against him by Attorney General Mandelblit.

Israel’s national interest must incontrovertibly prevail.

Crunch time for Judea and Samaria has arrived — 100 years after reconstitution of the Jewish National Home in Palestine was first proposed internationally at the 1920 San Remo Conference.

Realising that 100 year old dream should be Israel’s paramount objective.


Author’s note: The cartoon – commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators – whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog.

Knifing Netanyahu could sink release of Trump peace plan

[Published 27 November 2019]

From most reports Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will soon be finished politically — forced to resign as Israel’s longest serving Prime Minister to defend three indictments levelled against him by Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit.

The first indictment involves bribery, fraud and breach of trust in Case 4000 — the Bezeq-Walla Affair; the second — fraud and breach of trust in Case 1000 — the Illegal Gifts Affair; and the third for fraud and breach of trust in Case 2000 — the Yediot Ahronot-Israel Hayom Affair.

One consequence of Netanyahu’s exit from politics — if it does happen — could see President Trump having second thoughts about releasing his long-awaited and eagerly-anticipated deal of the century to end the 100 years old Arab-Jewish conflict (deal) - which Trump had already promised to release after Israel’s next Government is formed.

A government without Netanyahu at the helm would pose a serious problem for Trump, who has forged a unique relationship of respect and mutual trust with Netanyahu that no other Israeli politician enjoys.

Trump is not in the business of seeing anything he proposes fail — especially this deal.

Trump does not want to join former Presidents Reagan, Carter, Clinton, Bush and Obama – whose well-intentioned proposals to resolve the long-running Arab-Jewish conflict have ended up in the garbage bin of history.

Trump has carefully crafted the drip release of his deal over the last two years — possibly in close consultation with Netanyahu — to give Israel the best hope it has ever had of finally reaching agreement with purposeful Arab negotiators. Trump’s failure so far to find such Arab negotiators has been a major factor in delaying the deal’s release.

The Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) has made it abundantly clear that it will not negotiate with Israel on Trump’s deal under any circumstances.

Egypt and Jordan — the only two Arab states to have signed peace treaties with Israel in 1979 and 1994 — and the last two Arab States to have occupied Gaza and Judea and Samaria between 1948 and 1967 — still seem to be bucking at announcing their readiness to negotiate with Israel on Trump’s deal.

Trump will seemingly not release the final details of his deal unless he first has Arab assurances to bona fide negotiate with Israel in translating those details into binding commitments to end the long-running conflict.

Trump will not release his deal only to find it is dead in the water because no Arab negotiators will sit down with Israel.

Trump is interested in winning — not losing before he even jumps out of the starting gate.

Trump will need to now be satisfied that any new Israeli Prime Minister possesses the same views as Netanyahu on the issues Trump has already identified as integral elements of his deal:

1. extending Israeli sovereignty to Jewish towns and villages in Judea and Samaria,

2. declaring Jerusalem to be Israel’s eternal capital

3. recognising Israeli sovereignty in the Golan Heights

Trump will now also need to be assured that any new Israeli Prime Minister will not call on Trump to renew America’s payments to UNRWA and UNESCO, to reopen the PLO Embassy in Washington or resume funding to the PLO.

Netanyahu’s uncertain political future — and the absence of Arab negotiators ready to stand up and be counted — could see Trump’s deal being put on the political backburner until Trump’s bid for re-election for another four years is known on November 3, 2020.

Knifing Netanyahu introduces yet another wild card that could delay peace between Arabs and Jews — leaving the failed leadership of the PLO cheering and heaving huge sighs of relief.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Netanyahu will be Israel's next Prime Minister - with Trump's help

[Published 4 June 2019]

The abrupt termination of Israel’s 21st Parliament with new elections being called for 17 September has seen the New York Times claiming that Israel has been plunged into unprecedented political chaos.

A more sober assessment — based on comparing Israel’s 2015 election results with the April 2019 results — provides a different picture — in which Prime Minister Netanyahu will be returned once again as Israel’s next Prime Minister.

In an article written by me in March — I opined:

“The cards have certainly been stacked against Benjamin Netanyahu being Israel’s next Prime Minister after three recent major developments — but he is by no means down and out.”

Those developments were:

1. Israeli Attorney-General Avichai Mandelblit’s decision to pursue Netanyahu for alleged criminal offences.

2. Three political parties coalescing into the Blue and White Party - promising that two of the three previous leaders — former Chief of Staff Benny Gantz and Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid — would each be Prime Minister for half of the next Government’s term of office.

3. Netanyahu’s role in precipitating a marriage of convenience between Jewish Home, National Union and an extreme right wing party Otzma Yehudit with alleged links to the assassinated Rabbi Meir Kahane’s banned political party Kach

I pointed out that:

“The 2015 election results provide a useful guide as to the likely impact these three developments might have on Netanyahu’s chances:

1. the Likud Party only received 23.4% of the vote — hardly a ringing endorsement for Netanyahu and
2. 72% of those eligible voted — very high when compared to America’s 58.1%.

Likud’s low supporter-base seems unlikely to desert Netanyahu.

Voter turnout would have to increase dramatically or huge swings away from other right-wing parties would be needed to give Blue and White the nod needed to be invited by President Rivlin to form a coalition Government ahead of Netanyahu.

The unknown elephants in the room are the number of terrorist attacks and international political developments affecting Israel in the next five weeks that will concentrate voters’ minds — when actually casting their votes — on who can best safeguard their personal safety and Israel’s security"

Netanyahu won that race - the April 2019 election results revealing:

1. Voter turnout went down from 72% to 68%

2. Netanyahu’s Likud party vote went up from 23.4% to 26.46%

3.The party forcing the fresh September elections by refusing to join a Likud-led coalition — Yisrael Beiteinu headed by Avigdor Lieberman — saw its vote reduced from 214,906 to 173,004

These results should become more pronounced after voters evaluate the outcome of the Conference to be co-hosted by President Trump and Bahrain in Manama on 25/26 June to be attended by Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar — with Egypt, Jordan and Israel (represented by Netanyahu’s caretaker Government) and other regional Arab states expected to also attend.

The US State Department has confirmed the Conference will go ahead notwithstanding Israel’s snap elections in September.

Add to this the likely possibility that before the September elections:

1. Trump could recognise Israel’s political claims to sovereignty in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) as he did in the Golan Heights prior to the April elections;

2. There could be further terror attacks against Israel from Gaza and the West Bank followed by swift Netanyahu-directed responses.

Trump has already pronounced his feelings on Israel’s September elections:

“Bibi got elected. Now, all of a sudden, they’re going to have to go through the process again until September? That’s ridiculous.”

Netanyahu — based on the April 2019 election results and Trump’s anticipated pro-Israel decisions — is the odds-on favourite to be Israel’s next Prime Minister.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Netanyahu could still be Israel's next Prime Minister

[Published 6 March 2019]


The cards have certainly been stacked against Benjamin Netanyahu being Israel’s next Prime Minister after three recent major developments — but he is by no means down and out.

Those developments are:

1. Israeli Attorney-General Avichai Mandelblit’s decision to pursue Netanyahu for alleged criminal offences — explained by Elena Chachko as follows:

“Mandelblit only announced that he is considering indicting Netanyahu. In other words, the announcement does not mean that Netanyahu would necessarily be indicted. This is not specific to Netanyahu’s case, but rather a feature of the Israeli justice system: Netanyahu, like most criminal defendants in Israel who face serious charges, will get a hearing before a final decision is made. Based on news reports and past precedents, the hearing will take place several months from now, after the April elections. This process is governed by the guidelines of the state attorney — the official subordinate to the attorney general who directs prosecutions — for notification and hearing in criminal proceedings.”

2. Three political parties coalescing into the Blue and White Party - promising that two of the three previous leaders — former Chief of Staff Benny Gantz and Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid — will each be Prime Minister for half of the next Government’s term of office.

3. Netanyahu’s role in precipitating a marriage of convenience between Jewish Home, National Union and an extreme right wing party Otzma Yehudit with alleged links to the assassinated Rabbi Meir Kahane’s banned political party Kach — which has caused consternation and anger in Israel, America and Australia.

It remains to be seen whether these three developments translate into Netanyahu not being Israel’s next Prime Minister.

Bret Stephens - one of Netanyahu’s most trenchant critics - penned an op-ed article in the New York Times “Netanyahu must go” in which even he grudgingly admits:

“As I noted last year, in matters of policy and execution, Netanyahu has been a remarkably effective prime minister. On his watch, Israel’s economy has thrived, its diplomatic horizons have widened, its borders have been defended and its enemies humiliated. Thanks to Donald Trump, whom he cultivated astutely and assiduously, he got his way on the Iran deal, brought the American Embassy to Jerusalem and pursued openings with the Arab world without making irreversible concessions to the Palestinians.

Israel’s critics may like none of this, but from an Israeli standpoint they are considerable successes.”

Noted jurists Alan Dershowitz and Avi Bell - Professor of Law at Bar Ilan University and the University of San Diego - have criticized Mandelblit’s decision.

President Trump and Vladimir Putin’s relationships with Netanyahu are not enjoyed by any other candidates.

A spirited defence distinguishing Otzma Yehudit’s policies from those of the Kach Party has been made by Otzma candidate — Itamar Ben Gvir.

The 2015 election results provide a useful guide as to the likely impact these three developments might have on Netanyahu’s chances:

1. the Likud Party only received 23.4% of the vote — hardly a ringing endorsement for Netanyahu and

2. 72% of those eligible voted — very high when compared to America’s 58.1%.

Likud’s low supporter-base seems unlikely to desert Netanyahu.

Voter turnout would have to increase dramatically or huge swings away from other right-wing parties would be needed to give Blue and White the nod needed to be invited by President Rivlin to form a coalition Government ahead of Netanyahu.

The unknown elephants in the room are the number of terrorist attacks and international political developments affecting Israel in the next five weeks that will concentrate voters’ minds — when actually casting their votes - on who can best safeguard their personal safety and Israel’s security.

Netanyahu is certainly not out of the race.