Israel elections should send clear message to Trump, PLO, EU and UN

[Published 26 February 2019]


Israeli voters at the forthcoming elections on 9 April should be given the opportunity to send President Trump, the PLO, EU and UN a clear message on what they want to see happening in Judea and Samaria (West Bank), East Jerusalem and Gaza – the last 5% of the territory comprised in the Mandate for Palestine where sovereignty remains unresolved between Jews and Arabs (“disputed territories”).

For this to happen - all political parties need to state in clear and unambiguous terms what their policies in relation to the disputed territories will be if they form part of the next Government.

The options and the choices are many – and include:

1. Continuing to press for a negotiated “two-state solution” – the creation of an Arab State – in addition to Jordan – in all or part of the disputed territories

2. Annexing all or part of the disputed territories

3. Creating Jordanian enclaves in all or part of the disputed territories

4. Maintaining the status quo without any further negotiations

5. Redrawing the international borders between Israel, Jordan and Egypt

Co-head of the front runner Blue and White Party - Benny Gantz – needs to do better than stating:

“The main question is that of security. It [the Government] needs to ensure the State of Israel’s security. Now, there’s a question of interest here. We — and Netanyahu said this in his Bar-Ilan speech (a 2009 address in which the prime minister backed Palestinian statehood) — are not looking to control anyone else. We need to find a way in which we’re not controlling other people.”

Is Gantz talking about the Arab populations in the disputed territories? 95% of the Arab population in Judea and Samaria is under PLO control. 100% of Gaza’s Arabs-only population is under Hamas control. East Jerusalem Arabs are under Israel’s control.

Gantz must articulate his plan for ending what he sees as Israel’s control of other people.

Gantz’s partner Yair Lapid expressed the following view in 2008:

“The greatest tragedy of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is that everyone knows how it will end. We will divide up the region. Israel will return most of the West Bank, and the Palestinian flag will fly on public buildings in East Jerusalem. The only unanswered question is how many more people will have to die along the way. And so we will fight against the extremists on both sides, including our extremists, the settlers. When you look at the history of wars, they ultimately revolve around one claim: “My god is better than yours.”

Is this still Lapid’s view in 2019? He - like Gantz – owes it to the electorate to spell out his party’s position should it be in the next Government.

Netanyahu needs to state what the Likud Party’s policy is right now – not what it might have been in 2009 or at any time since. All political parties seeking election must do likewise.

Views held in 2008 or 2009 are irrelevant – raking over old coals is counter-productive.

Gantz is right in recognizing that security is the main question at this election – as it always has been.

All the promises and allure of a better and more prosperous society, equality and justice for all - even going to the moon and back – count for nought if those voting are murdered, injured or traumatized to not enjoy the benefits.

President Trump needs to know what outcomes the Israelis want for the disputed territories before issuing his long-anticipated “deal of the century” very soon after the elections. The PLO, EU and UN need to also listen, digest and respond.

The time for straight-talking on the disputed territories is right now.

Trump's one-state solution: A Jordan enclave in the West Bank

[Published 31 October 2018]

United States Secretary of Defense - James Mattis — remarkably failed to mention “the two-state solution”, or even the “Palestinian-Israeli conflict” in his keynote address — “US Policy in a Changing Middle East” — delivered at the International Institute for Strategic Affairs 14th Regional Security Summit in Manama, Bahrein held between 26-28 October.

Mattis’ pointed omissions can only fuel speculation that a “one-state solution” — possibly involving the creation of a Jordan enclave in the West Bank - could now be uppermost in President Trump’s thinking.

Billed as “The Middle East’s premier security summit” —the attendees included some of the most powerful policymakers from the Middle East and beyond to address the region’s most pressing governance challenges.

Jordan’s King Abdullah in the opening address at the Summit - delivered by his Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates Ayman Safadi — had warned:

“There have been many attempts to delay and subvert the hope the two-state solution offers. Today, these negative efforts include the fallacy of a single, bi-national state. Any such solution, based on unilateral acts and unequal rights, would be a moral disaster and a recipe for continued conflict.”

Safadi reinforced Abdullah’s message in his own speech the following day:

“As His Majesty said yesterday, the fallacy of one-state solution is something that we all need to keep our eyes wide open as it is being put on the table. If there is no two-state solution then one-state solution, then Israel is going to have to do determine whether it is going to be apartheid South Africa or a democratic Israel where Palestinians within Israel are going to have to exercise their political rights. So, this is the kind of situation that we are looking at.”

The King and his Foreign Minister’s gloomy prognostications would disappear in their entirety if that “one-state solution” did not comprise Israel and the entire West Bank - but comprised Jordan united with a Jordan enclave in part of the West Bank.

A Jordan enclave would:

1.Contain possibly 95% of the existing West Bank Arab population - once again being reunified in a single territorial entity with Jordan as existed between 1950 and 1967

2.Enable Jordanian citizenship to be restored to the enclave’s population - as previously existed between 1950 and 1988.

3.Remove apartheid fears — since the Jordan/enclave population would be entirely Arab with family ties extending over the two banks of the Jordan River

4. Be as democratic or undemocratic as the re-united populations wished — as occurred between 1950 and 1988

5. Complete the original two-state solution first contemplated by the 1922 League of Nations Mandate for Palestine:
(i) an Arab State — Jordan - sovereign in about 80% of the territory of the Mandate -and
(ii) a Jewish State—Israel — sovereign in about the remaining 20% of the Mandate

Interestingly — Safadi — in answering a question on resolving the seven-year old Syrian conflict — remarked:

“I think if we all look in the mirror and ask ourselves the question, have we been following the right approach to solving the problem, I think facts on the ground will tell us no. We need not double down on positions that have gotten us where we are now. We need to be more realistic. We need to follow new approaches that will bring about a political solution to that crisis.”

The single bi-national state is neither a fallacy nor a disaster - if both national entities are Arab.

A Jordan enclave in the West Bank — negotiated between Israel and Jordan under President Trump’s auspices — could indeed prove to be the new approach and realistic political solution to ending the 100 year-old Arab-Jewish conflict.

Author’s note: The cartoon—commissioned exclusively for this article—is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators—whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at: Drybonesblog

Jordan enclave in West Bank could be Trump's "two-state" solution

[Published 3 October 2018]

Creating another Palestinian Arab state — in addition to Jordan - has been seemingly consigned to the garbage bin of history following Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s CNN interview on 28 September.

President Trump had just told Netanyahu on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly:

“I like two-state solution. I like two-state solution. That’s what I think works best. I don’t even have to speak to anybody, that’s my feeling.”

When asked if he was prepared to commit to a two-state solution - Netanyahu told his CNN interviewer:

“I’ve discovered that if you use labels you are not going to get very far because different people mean different things when they say “states”. So rather than talk about labels, I like to talk about substance”

Questioned on what he would like to see - Netanyahu replied:

“What I would like to see is that the Palestinians will have all the powers to govern themselves and not all the powers that will threaten us. What that means is that in the tiny area between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea — it’s all about 50 kilometres wide — that’s where the Palestinians live and the Israelis live — in that area under any peace agreement or without a peace agreement — Israel has to have the dominant power, the military power, overriding security power ...”

Netanyahu then stressed:

“Israel has to have the overriding security, not the UN, not Canadian Mounties, not — I don’t know — Austrian or Australian forces — Israeli forces have to have the security control, otherwise, that place will be taken over by Islamist terrorists, either Daesh, ISIS or Hamas or Iran, all of the above, and that’s my condition.”

Trump’s upcoming peace plan slated for release in 2-4 months needs to deal with Netanyahu’s concerns if it is to win Israel’s backing.

Israel’s security demands would best be satisfied by part of the West Bank being reunified with Jordan to create a Jordanian enclave in the West Bank — with the remainder of the West Bank being annexed by Israel.

This solution would enable Israel to:

1. Control access and egress between the West Bank and Jordan

2. Maintain security control for the entire area from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea

3.Ensure the enclave be demilitarized and remain demilitarized

The enclave’s residents would acquire Jordanian citizenship. Jordanian law would apply in the enclave — which could be divided into any number of electoral divisions whose residents would choose their representatives to sit in the Jordanian Parliament.

The PLO has already rejected Trump’s peace plan — sight unseen — opening the door for Jordan — at peace with Israel since signing their 1994 Peace Treaty - to fill the negotiating void necessary to create this Jordanian enclave.

Israel’s former Foreign Minister Moshe Arens presciently stated on January 11, 1989:

“Jordan is a Palestinian state. And it is with Jordan that we must decide where the border will run…. Should the border follow the Jordan River, as it does today, or should it be west of the Jordan, as the Jordanians would like?”

I would suggest therefore that, when it comes to talking about territory there is only one negotiating party acceptable to the government of Israel. That party is the existing Palestinian state of Jordan.”

Creating a Jordanian enclave in the West Bank with Israel annexing the remainder could be - in Trump’s own words:

“the ultimate deal…as a deal maker, I’d like to do … the deal that can’t be made. And do it for humanity’s sake.”

Don’t underestimate Trump’s deal-making ability to end what he himself has called “the war that never ends”.


Author’s note:The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Jordan's re-entry into West Bank looms large as Trump dumps PLO

[Published 6 September 2018]

Two major developments this past week could see a large part of Judea and Samaria (West Bank) being reunified with Jordan — as existed between 1948 and 1967 - or becoming a Jordanian enclave - under President Trumps’ yet-to-be- announced “ultimate deal” intended to resolve the 100 years-old Arab-Jewish conflict.

Those developments were:

1. Trump immediately stopped all further American financial aid to UNRWA:

The PLO refused to have anything to do with Trump’s slowly-gestating peace proposals after Trump recognised Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in December 2017.

This PLO anti-Trump stance has continued unabated despite US Ambassador to the United Nations — Nikki Haley— publicly warning the PLO last January when asked about future US funding for the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestinian Arab refugees:

“The President has basically said he doesn’t want to give any additional funding, or stop funding, until the Palestinians agree to come back to the negotiation table. We still very much want to have a peace process. Nothing changes with that. The Palestinians now have to show they want to. As of now, they’re not coming to the table, but they ask for aid. We’re not giving the aid. We’re going to make sure that they come to the table.”

This week Trump gave up waiting — ending all future donations to UNRWA including $300 million pledged for this year.

More than 2 million UNRWA registered Palestinian Arab refugees live in Jordan — most of whom have full citizenship. Nearly 370,000 - or 18 per cent—live in 10 refugee camps.

The West Bank has nearly 775,000 UNRWA registered Palestinian Arab refugees - a quarter of who live in 19 camps.

Trump’s proven propensity for financially helping those States that help him achieve his goals could well see a large part of this retired UNRWA funding being redirected to Jordan - if Jordan replaces the PLO and enters into direct negotiations with Israel on finally resolving sovereignty in the West Bank.

2. The PLO announced it had refused Trump’s proposal to create a Jordan-West Bank confederation:

Israel and the PLO have been unable to agree on the creation of an additional Arab State between Israel and Jordan after fruitless negotiations conducted over the last 25 years.

Rejecting a Jordan-West Bank confederation now sees the PLO hoisted by its own petard — leaving Jordan to fill the yawning diplomatic void by stepping in and negotiating with Israel to engineer Jordan’s return to a large part of the West Bank — occupied by Jordan from 1948 until its loss to Israel in the 1967 Six Day War.

Restoring Jordanian citizenship to the West Bank Arab population — as existed between 1950 and 1988 — would once again see parity of rights re-established between the Arab populations spanning both sides of the Jordan River.

The 29 refugee camps in Jordan and the West Bank could be closed and their inhabitants integrated into the general population. “Palestinian refugees” would be relics of the past.

No Arab or Jew living in the West Bank would be forced to move.

Palestinian Arabs residing in other Arab countries could emigrate to this newly-merged Jordan-West Bank entity — which might even choose to rename itself “Palestine” — comprising as it would about 80% of the territory contained in the League of Nations Mandate for Palestine. Israel would end up exercising sovereignty in about 19% - leaving sovereignty in the remaining 1% - Gaza — to be determined by Israel, Jordan and Egypt.

As with any good settlement - no-one would be 100% happy — but 100 years of conflict would be ended and Trump would have pulled off yet another stunning success.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog