Netanyahu and Lieberman must rescue Israel from self-imploding

[Published 24 March 2020]


Israel is in serious danger of self-imploding as a political, legal, and constitutional crisis of epic proportions is set to erupt. It can be averted if Israel’s Prime Minister - Benjamin Netanyahu - and head of Yisrael Beiteinu – Avigdor Lieberman – resolve the issue of the ultra-orthodox doing military service - raised by Lieberman 12 months ago.

The looming crisis has been created following the Speaker of the Knesset – Yuri Edelstein – rejecting the advisory opinion of the High Court of Justice that he declare his position as speaker open when the Knesset resumes on March 25.

In his official response to the High Court Edelstein stated:

“I won’t agree to ultimatums. I can’t agree because that would make the Knesset’s agenda determined by the High Court and not by the Speaker of the Knesset, who is assigned this role.”

Edelstein’s refusal to commit to any set date comes amidst the uncertainty caused by the ongoing political negotiations to form a government.

The High Court — unmoved by Edelstein’s submission — ordered Edelstein to convene the Knesset by March 25 and hold a vote that could see him replaced. The High Court did not say what actions it would take if Edelstein attempted to ignore the ruling.

Front and centre in this crisis has been the attempt by:

33 Blue and White members,
7 Labor-Meretz-Gesher members
7 Yisrael Beiteinu members and
15 Joint List Arab bloc members

to advance legislation barring a Knesset member facing criminal charges from forming a government — effectively disqualifying Netanyahu.

This bloc of 62 members makes strange bedfellows:

1. Joint List does not recognize Israel as the Jewish National Home

2. Blue & White leaders Gantz, Lapid and Ya’alon have personal grievances against Netanyahu going back years

3. Lieberman has a fractured relationship with Netanyahu, has refused to sit next to Joint List Knesset members and favoured transfer of Israeli Arabs into a new Palestinian state.

Lieberman had made non-negotiable demands for entering into Government with Netanyahu after the February 2019 indecisive election – which if accepted – would have seen no need for the two elections that followed and this current crisis.

The principal issue was Netanyahu’s refusal to accept a bill drafted by Lieberman calling for ultra-orthodox Jews to do military service.

Netanyahu was captive to the ultra-orthodox Jews in his then coalition who threatened to bolt if he wavered.

Lieberman would not budge.

A second election followed in September 2019 - when an expected increased turn out by the religious parties to oppose Lieberman’s bill never eventuated. The religious parties’ votes only increased by 91,650 whilst Lieberman’s party vote increased by 137,684.

Lieberman again would not yield in his demands – emboldened by his increased vote exceeding that of the religious parties.

Israel held its third election this month.

The religious parties are on far weaker ground this time as they are locked in to a single negotiating bloc now containing 58 members.

Lieberman is also in a weaker position – having lost 46,789 votes and one seat whilst Netanyahu gained 238,882 votes and 4 seats.

Cutting a deal between Netanyahu and Lieberman remains the only option to prevent Israel entering into a period of complete political and constitutional upheaval once the Knesset sitting commences.

Lieberman and Netanyahu’s shared dream could be the circuit breaker: Both want to see Jewish sovereignty immediately restored in Judea and Samaria after 3000 years - in tandem with President Trump - whilst Blue & White do not. Neither can allow their personal antipathy towards each other to miss this golden opportunity.

Netanyahu and Lieberman must do a deal before the Knesset sits . They cannot afford to fail.

Netanyahu and Liberman must stop Israel's third election this year

[Published 4 October 2019]

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Liberman have finally met — albeit for just one hour — to discuss the possibility of the 63 votes they control being converted into Israel’s next Government.

It is hard to believe that having made that long-awaited breakthrough, they would be so foolish and obstinate to refuse to compromise their differences to prevent the Israeli electorate going through a third election within nine months.

The direct cost to the Israeli government for new elections, including a budget for the central elections committee and state funding for parties running in the elections, is estimated at NIS 800 million ($220 million).

The greatest loss, however, arises due to the fact that election day is an official vacation day in Israel. The country’s daily GDP is approximately NIS 5 billion ($1.4 billion), and according to conservative estimates, election day represents a loss to the Israeli economy of some NIS 1.5 billion ($410 million).

Liberman has publicly laid out his demands for joining the Right-Wing bloc headed by Netanyahu:

1. Passage of the ultra-orthodox military service law, as drafted by Liberman ;

2. civil marriage; [permitting] conversions by local rabbis;

3. re-approving egalitarian prayer at the Western Wall;

4. requiring ultra-orthodox schools to teach secular subjects

5.public transportation and the opening of mini-markets on the Sabbath.These two issues would be left up to local authorities in every municipality, based on who lives in any given town.

Liberman warned:

“We won’t accept anything less than this, even if it means sitting in the opposition.”

Crunch time has arrived.

Liberman has to adopt a more flexible approach and accept less than the “all or nothing” stance he has adopted.

Netanyahu is now in a much stronger position politically to accept Liberman’s major deal-breaking demand last April for passage of Liberman’s ultra-orthodox military service draft law. More new votes were seemingly cast in September by Liberman voters for this proposal (136684) than against it by voters for the religious parties (91188).

Civil marriage and conversions by local rabbis is a curly problem that could be sent to a Committee to consider and come up with recommendations.

Re-approving the Western Wall arrangements should be a formality.

Requiring ultra-orthodox schools to teach secular subjects could begin with pilot projects in specified schools in particular areas where the ultra-orthodox community does not constitute the majority of the population residing there Ira- and perhaps after gaining approval by a majority of parents whose children attend such schools.

There is a pathway to agreement on these issues that can be achieved with goodwill and a readiness to compromise in recognition of a greater objective, sparing the Israeli electorate another election and the possibility another deadlock will result.

Israel is surrounded by enemies — especially Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria and Hamas in Gaza that could be tempted to exploit the fractured nature of Israel’s current political circumstances.

There are pressing political issues awaiting Israel’s next Government, most notably negotiations on President Trump’s deal of the century and Netanyahu’s election promise to annex large parts of the West Bank.

Ending this state of suspended uncertainty has now been thrust on the shoulders of Netanyahu and Liberman - following the failure of Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz to achieve a deal they could both live with.

Netanyahu and Liberman would do well to heed the sage advice contained in the Ethics of the Fathers:

“Do not seek greatness for yourself, and do not lust for honor”

Achieving greatness and honor together by compromising their political expectations will secure Netanyahu and Liberman a special place in the annals of Israel.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Netanyahu and Liberman could cut deal if Rivlin plan fails

[Published 24 September 2019]

President Rivlin's decision to bring Bibi Netanyahu and Benny Gantz together to see if a Government of National Unity can be formed makes sense in the extraordinary situation that has followed Israel’s elections on 17 September.

Once again neither the Left nor Right wing blocs have won the 61 seats required to form Government.

Rivlin’s proposal however could well founder on the aspirations of Netanyahu, Gantz and Yair Lapid to be the Prime Minister of any such Government and whether that position should be rotated and in what order.

During the April 2019 election campaign - Gantz and Lapid ran under a rotation agreement that would have seen Gantz serve as prime minister for the first two years and eight months whilst Lapid took over for the remainder of the term. Their agreement was key to the merger of Gantz’s Israel Resilience Party with Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party to form the Blue and White Party.

In June 2019, Gantz and Lapid pledged they would keep their deal to rotate the premiership if they formed the next government after the September elections.

Now — after those inconclusive elections — Lapid has made this call at a Blue and White faction meeting:

“One person is preventing the formation of a liberal unity government. One person. When faced with the choice between what’s important for the country and what’s important for one person, the country comes first.”

Lapid was obviously referring to Netanyahu.

Is Lapid prepared — in the same spirit — to give up his entitlement to be Prime Minister to enable Gantz and Netanyahu to thrash out an agreement?

After that major problem is settled — infighting for positions in that Government would follow that would be fraught with personal rivalries and ambitions.

Paradoxically the election results have eased the path for Netanyahu and Liberman to form a Government with Netanyahu as its Prime Minister. The same problems of allocating portfolios in their 63-member coalition would remain — but would be far easier than dealing with 99 members in a coalition of National Unity. Bridging the Netanyahu-Liberman antipathy divide wouldn’t be easy either.

Liberman’s party did not form Government with 60 other members of the Right last April after Netanyahu refused to accept a bill drafted by Liberman calling for ultra-orthodox Jews to do military service. Netanyahu was captive to the ultra-orthodox Jews comprised in his then bloc who threatened to bolt if he wavered.

Liberman’s continuing insistence that his military service bill be legislated was countered by United Torah Judaism MK Yakov Asher declaring this the best possible get-out-the-vote campaign the religious parties could wish for.

The religious parties failed big time.

Netanyahu is now in an easier political position to agree to Liberman’s demand than he was in April — the latest voting results showing:

1. Liberman’s vote increased from 173,004 to 309,688 — an increase of 136,684.

2. The combined votes of the religious parties — Shas and United Torah Judaism — increased from 507,324 to 598,522 — an increase of only 91,198.

3. Likud’s vote decreased from 1,140,370 to 1,111,535 — a drop of 28,835

The turnout of ultra-orthodox voters opposing Liberman’s bill did not match the turnout of new voters supporting Liberman’s bill and those Likud voters changing their votes for possibly the same reason.

The religious parties are now on far weaker ground to oppose Liberman’s reform as they are locked in to a single negotiating bloc containing 55 members - presumably acting by majority vote.

Cutting a deal between Netanyahu and Liberman remains an option to prevent Israel going through this electoral agony for a third time if Rivlin’s call fails.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Trump seems set to see Netanyahu as Israel’s next Prime Minister

[Published 11 September 2019]

President Trump seems set to see Bibi Netanyahu re-elected as Israel’s next Prime Minister in the upcoming elections to be held on 17 September — the second this year following an indecisive vote in April that left no-one able to form Government.

Early voting by eligible Israeli diplomats and emissaries around the world has seen a drop in their turnout from 76% in April to 69% in September.

If general voters follow the diplomats’ lead next week:

1. The voter turnout of 67.97% in April 2019 will be further reduced.

2. Netanyahu’s Likud party will increase its proportion of the vote — 26.46% in April 2019 — up from 23.4% in 2015 — to an even higher figure.

Likud increased its numbers from 985408 in 2015 to 1140370 in April 2019 — whilst Yisrael Beiteinu’s numbers decreased from 214906 in 2015 to 173004 in April 2019. Blue and White contested the April elections for the first time.

Likud voters, buoyed by the post-April statements detailed in 1, 2 and 3 below, will most likely vote again, whilst Blue and White and Yisrael Beiteinu voters, unhappy with their leaders’ post-April statements detailed in 4 and 5 below, are more likely to stay home.

Any increase in general voter turnout this time beyond 67.97% would defy the diplomatic downturn, but should still see parties on the Right securing more of those new votes than parties on the Left.

Statements made since April by Trump’s Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, President Trump himself, Likud’s Netanyahu, Yisrael Beiteinu’s Lieberman and Blue and White’s Gantz support this conclusion.

1. Ambassador Friedman indicated that some degree of annexation of the West Bank would be legitimate.

“Under certain circumstances, I think Israel has the right to retain some, but unlikely all, of the West Bank,”

2. More new voters — conscious of their own families’ personal safety — would vote Right — than those opposing any annexation — who would vote Left.

3. Trump endorsed Netanyahu as a ”a great guy”

4. Netanyahu, speaking in Elkana, located in Samaria, pledged:

“With God’s help we will extend Jewish sovereignty to all the settlements as part of the (biblical) Land of Israel, as part of the State of Israel. “This is our land…“We will build another Elkana and another Elkana and another Elkana. We will not uproot anyone here,”

In a first-ever public address from Hebron by a sitting Israeli prime minister - Netanyahu vowed:

”To cite the late Menachem Begin and the late Yigal Allon: ‘Hebron will not be devoid of Jews.’ It will not be Judenrein [ed: Jew free]. And I say on the 90th anniversary of the disturbances [ed: when 67 Jews were murdered] — we are not foreigners in Hebron, we will stay here forever.”

These patriotic declarations should attract more Right-supportive than Left-opposing new voters.

5. Lieberman promised to amend the law to make ultra-orthodox youths do compulsory military training.

United Torah Judaism MK Yakov Asher has declared this the best possible get-out-the-vote campaign the ultra-Orthodox parties could wish for.

New ultra-orthodox voters turning out to spare children in their ultra-orthodox community undertaking this military obligation would likely exceed new secular voters who think this is a reform long overdue.

6. Trump’s judgment has been challenged by Gantz stating he would have admitted US Congresswomen Omar and Tlaib into Israel.

Gantz’s decision would not resonate with a majority of new voters — who would consider any disagreement with Trump could jeopardize Trump’s amazing support of Israel during his Presidency.

Trump and Netanyahu appear destined to continue their very special relationship after the votes have been counted.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones” - one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog