Vote recount could possibly end Israel’s electoral morass

[Published 19 October 2019]

Israel’s President Rivlin is due to make a decision on October 24 on whether to extend for another 14 days the mandate he granted to Benjamin Netanyahu to form Israel’s next Government.

Reports that Rivlin will not give Netanyahu that 14 days extension — even if requested by Netanyahu — seems counterproductive to doing everything possible to avoid a third election within 12 months.

The President should also take advantage of that 14-day period to order a recount of votes to answer a query that the September election results have thrown up — which is encapsulated in this email I sent to the Central Elections Committee on 29 September:

“I would be pleased if you could give me an explanation to my following comment relating to the final count in the September 2019 elections:

There was an increase of 27,536 in the number of eligible votes cast from 4,309,270 in April 2019 to 4,436,806 in September. Yet there was an increase of 133,103 alone just in the Joint List vote (470,211) over the Hadash-Tal and Ram-Balad vote (337,108) in April.

Thank you for helping me to understand how this could occur.”

The April election results were mired in confusion due to a bug in the Central Elections Committee website. The displayed data indicated for several hours that the New Right party was just above the threshold with 3.26%, but officials said that was a mistake.

The officials said the bug on the site meant that it was not showing accurate numbers for total votes counted, and was thus displaying inaccurate figures for all parties. This was rectified.

Could this same mistake have happened again in September and not have been rectified?

I have not yet received a reply to my request.

The distribution of Knesset seats is very complicated and the summary issued by the Central Committee needs to be amplified and explained.

Allowing Netanyahu another 14 days would therefore seem to be in the national interest from everyone’s standpoint — especially if Netanyahu requests it.

Calling on Blue and White leader Benny Gantz to try and form a Government can wait another 14 days — given that Netanyahu’s bloc has a clear electoral majority over the Ganz bloc — 1,973,246 votes to 1,556,491 votes .

President Trump — like bemused Israeli voters — is frustrated by an electoral system that has failed to produce a new Government following elections in April and September.

After April’s fiasco – Trump opined:

“Well, it’s too bad what happened in Israel. It looked like a total win for Netanyahu, who’s a great guy, he’s a great guy,” said the president. “And now they’re back… in the election stage. That is too bad. Because they don’t need this. I mean they’ve got enough turmoil over there, it’s a tough place.”

That turmoil continued in September and could be repeated following any third election.

Trump’s deal of the century — years in the making and designed to end the 100 years Jewish-Arab conflict — will not be released until a new Israeli Government has been formed.

Liberman’s failure to sign up his 8 seats with the 55 seats aligned with Netanyahu continues to confound the democratic electoral process — when a party not securing a majority of seats in its own right can usually form a Government with a small party’s support — in return for granting that small party some of its political demands.

A full recount of the votes cast in the September 17 elections — if still legally available - could be just the miracle Israel needs to get out of its current predicament.

Clutching at straws maybe, but certainly well worth pursuing.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Netanyahu and Liberman could cut deal if Rivlin plan fails

[Published 24 September 2019]

President Rivlin's decision to bring Bibi Netanyahu and Benny Gantz together to see if a Government of National Unity can be formed makes sense in the extraordinary situation that has followed Israel’s elections on 17 September.

Once again neither the Left nor Right wing blocs have won the 61 seats required to form Government.

Rivlin’s proposal however could well founder on the aspirations of Netanyahu, Gantz and Yair Lapid to be the Prime Minister of any such Government and whether that position should be rotated and in what order.

During the April 2019 election campaign - Gantz and Lapid ran under a rotation agreement that would have seen Gantz serve as prime minister for the first two years and eight months whilst Lapid took over for the remainder of the term. Their agreement was key to the merger of Gantz’s Israel Resilience Party with Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party to form the Blue and White Party.

In June 2019, Gantz and Lapid pledged they would keep their deal to rotate the premiership if they formed the next government after the September elections.

Now — after those inconclusive elections — Lapid has made this call at a Blue and White faction meeting:

“One person is preventing the formation of a liberal unity government. One person. When faced with the choice between what’s important for the country and what’s important for one person, the country comes first.”

Lapid was obviously referring to Netanyahu.

Is Lapid prepared — in the same spirit — to give up his entitlement to be Prime Minister to enable Gantz and Netanyahu to thrash out an agreement?

After that major problem is settled — infighting for positions in that Government would follow that would be fraught with personal rivalries and ambitions.

Paradoxically the election results have eased the path for Netanyahu and Liberman to form a Government with Netanyahu as its Prime Minister. The same problems of allocating portfolios in their 63-member coalition would remain — but would be far easier than dealing with 99 members in a coalition of National Unity. Bridging the Netanyahu-Liberman antipathy divide wouldn’t be easy either.

Liberman’s party did not form Government with 60 other members of the Right last April after Netanyahu refused to accept a bill drafted by Liberman calling for ultra-orthodox Jews to do military service. Netanyahu was captive to the ultra-orthodox Jews comprised in his then bloc who threatened to bolt if he wavered.

Liberman’s continuing insistence that his military service bill be legislated was countered by United Torah Judaism MK Yakov Asher declaring this the best possible get-out-the-vote campaign the religious parties could wish for.

The religious parties failed big time.

Netanyahu is now in an easier political position to agree to Liberman’s demand than he was in April — the latest voting results showing:

1. Liberman’s vote increased from 173,004 to 309,688 — an increase of 136,684.

2. The combined votes of the religious parties — Shas and United Torah Judaism — increased from 507,324 to 598,522 — an increase of only 91,198.

3. Likud’s vote decreased from 1,140,370 to 1,111,535 — a drop of 28,835

The turnout of ultra-orthodox voters opposing Liberman’s bill did not match the turnout of new voters supporting Liberman’s bill and those Likud voters changing their votes for possibly the same reason.

The religious parties are now on far weaker ground to oppose Liberman’s reform as they are locked in to a single negotiating bloc containing 55 members - presumably acting by majority vote.

Cutting a deal between Netanyahu and Liberman remains an option to prevent Israel going through this electoral agony for a third time if Rivlin’s call fails.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Release of Trump deal could break Israel elections deadlock

[Published 13 November 2019]

The release of President Trump’s long-awaited and eagerly-anticipated deal of the century could be just the catalyst required to persuade Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu bloc of 8 members to join Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s bloc of 55 members to form Israel’s next Government.

Trump has previously announced that he would not present his plan to resolve the Arab-Jewish conflict until a new Israeli government was formed – but Trump’s position could be dramatically altered as the current political uncertainty in Israel seems to be leading to a third election being called within the space of 12 months.

New Right chairwoman Ayelet Shaked has been trying in the past week - unsuccessfully so far - to create a situation that would bring Liberman’s bloc and Netanyahu’s bloc together to enable a new government to be sworn in.

Shaked has reportedly met with Liberman. Afterwards - she also met with United Torah Judaism chairman Yaakov Litzman and Degel Hatorah chairman Moshe Gafni. These meetings focused on a compromise on issues of religion and state - and especially the Draft Law requiring ultra-orthodox youth to do military service - which would allow the parties to sit together in government - as was the case throughout much of the term of the last-elected Government.

Both sides reportedly were willing to listen but found it too difficult to compromise. Liberman’s side is interested in recording an achievement on the Draft Law - while the ultra-orthodox seek to prevent the law from becoming too sharply-worded.

President Trump must be champing at the bit at the continuing failure of the major political parties in Israel – Likud and Blue and White – to form a Government of National Unity – that would have heralded the release of Trump’s peace proposals in September.

Trump would be equally confused by the fact that the Netanyahu and Liberman blocs have been unable to coalesce into Israel’s next Government - despite the fact that they garnered 2,238,400 votes against the centrist and left parties who could only manage to get 1,556,491 votes.

There are five compelling reasons for Trump to release his peace proposals within the next month – rather than wait for another Israeli election to be held in March or April 2020:

1. Trump could be involved in fighting impeachment proceedings in the Senate next year as the House Intelligence Committee controlled by the Democrats continues its campaign against him.

2. Trump will be in full election mode in March/April as he seeks re-election as President in November 2020

3. Trump needs as much time as he can possibly get to promote, fully explain and expand on his ideas aimed at convincing Jews and Arabs that it is time to bury the hatchet after 100 years of unending conflict. This could involve countless hours in meetings and negotiations with Arab and Israeli leaders.

4.A third Israeli election could result in another deadlocked result and indefinitely delay the release of Trump’s plans until after the 2020 US Presidential elections

5. Trump’s plan would focus on the need for Israel to get its act together and form a properly constituted Government to deal with and negotiate on Trump’s proposals.

The priority of trying to reach an historic agreement with their Arab neighbours would surely supersede the domestic political wheeling and dealing that has so far marked Israel’s inability to fashion a Government.

Any attack on Israel by its enemies could be another shock to jolt Israel out of its current electoral complacency.

The Israeli Government that would emerge could be either a National Unity Government or a Netanyahu–Liberman Government.

Either would be preferable to the current standoff and political uncertainty.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Trump seems set to see Netanyahu as Israel’s next Prime Minister

[Published 11 September 2019]

President Trump seems set to see Bibi Netanyahu re-elected as Israel’s next Prime Minister in the upcoming elections to be held on 17 September — the second this year following an indecisive vote in April that left no-one able to form Government.

Early voting by eligible Israeli diplomats and emissaries around the world has seen a drop in their turnout from 76% in April to 69% in September.

If general voters follow the diplomats’ lead next week:

1. The voter turnout of 67.97% in April 2019 will be further reduced.

2. Netanyahu’s Likud party will increase its proportion of the vote — 26.46% in April 2019 — up from 23.4% in 2015 — to an even higher figure.

Likud increased its numbers from 985408 in 2015 to 1140370 in April 2019 — whilst Yisrael Beiteinu’s numbers decreased from 214906 in 2015 to 173004 in April 2019. Blue and White contested the April elections for the first time.

Likud voters, buoyed by the post-April statements detailed in 1, 2 and 3 below, will most likely vote again, whilst Blue and White and Yisrael Beiteinu voters, unhappy with their leaders’ post-April statements detailed in 4 and 5 below, are more likely to stay home.

Any increase in general voter turnout this time beyond 67.97% would defy the diplomatic downturn, but should still see parties on the Right securing more of those new votes than parties on the Left.

Statements made since April by Trump’s Ambassador to Israel David Friedman, President Trump himself, Likud’s Netanyahu, Yisrael Beiteinu’s Lieberman and Blue and White’s Gantz support this conclusion.

1. Ambassador Friedman indicated that some degree of annexation of the West Bank would be legitimate.

“Under certain circumstances, I think Israel has the right to retain some, but unlikely all, of the West Bank,”

2. More new voters — conscious of their own families’ personal safety — would vote Right — than those opposing any annexation — who would vote Left.

3. Trump endorsed Netanyahu as a ”a great guy”

4. Netanyahu, speaking in Elkana, located in Samaria, pledged:

“With God’s help we will extend Jewish sovereignty to all the settlements as part of the (biblical) Land of Israel, as part of the State of Israel. “This is our land…“We will build another Elkana and another Elkana and another Elkana. We will not uproot anyone here,”

In a first-ever public address from Hebron by a sitting Israeli prime minister - Netanyahu vowed:

”To cite the late Menachem Begin and the late Yigal Allon: ‘Hebron will not be devoid of Jews.’ It will not be Judenrein [ed: Jew free]. And I say on the 90th anniversary of the disturbances [ed: when 67 Jews were murdered] — we are not foreigners in Hebron, we will stay here forever.”

These patriotic declarations should attract more Right-supportive than Left-opposing new voters.

5. Lieberman promised to amend the law to make ultra-orthodox youths do compulsory military training.

United Torah Judaism MK Yakov Asher has declared this the best possible get-out-the-vote campaign the ultra-Orthodox parties could wish for.

New ultra-orthodox voters turning out to spare children in their ultra-orthodox community undertaking this military obligation would likely exceed new secular voters who think this is a reform long overdue.

6. Trump’s judgment has been challenged by Gantz stating he would have admitted US Congresswomen Omar and Tlaib into Israel.

Gantz’s decision would not resonate with a majority of new voters — who would consider any disagreement with Trump could jeopardize Trump’s amazing support of Israel during his Presidency.

Trump and Netanyahu appear destined to continue their very special relationship after the votes have been counted.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones” - one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Rabin's policies can help break Gantz-Netanyahu deadlock

[Published 5 November 2019]

The prospect of a third election in Israel within twelve months looms large — should Blue and White leader Benny Gantz be unable to form a Government of National Unity within the next two weeks.

To break the current deadlock — Gantz needs at least nine members to defect from the voting bloc of 55 seats led by Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Gantz’s cause could be considerably advanced were he to publicly endorse the policies pursued by the late Prime Minister — Yitzchak Rabin — who was assassinated on 4 November 1995.

Rabin made his intentions very clear in his last speech to the Knesset on 5 October 1995 when presenting the 300 page “Israeli-Palestinian Interim Agreement on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip” (Oslo Accords) for approval:

“Members of Knesset,

“We are striving for a permanent solution to the unending bloody conflict between us and the Palestinians and the Arab states.

“In the framework of the permanent solution, we aspire to reach, first and foremost, the State of Israel as a Jewish state, at least 80% of whose citizens will be, and are, Jews.

“At the same time, we also promise that the non-Jewish citizens of Israel — Muslim, Christian, Druze and others — will enjoy full personal, religious and civil rights, like those of any Israeli citizen. Judaism and racism are diametrically opposed.

“We view the permanent solution in the framework of State of Israel which will include most of the area of the Land of Israel as it was under the rule of the British Mandate, and alongside it a Palestinian entity which will be a home to most of the Palestinian residents living in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.

“We would like this to be an entity which is less than a state, and which will independently run the lives of the Palestinians under its authority. The borders of the State of Israel, during the permanent solution, will be beyond the lines which existed before the Six Day War. We will not return to the 4 June 1967 lines.

“And these are the main changes, not all of them, which we envision and want in the permanent solution:

1. First and foremost, united Jerusalem, which will include both Ma’ale Adumim and Givat Ze’ev — as the capital of Israel, under Israeli sovereignty, while preserving the rights of the members of the other faiths, Christianity and Islam, to freedom of access and freedom of worship in their holy places, according to the customs of their faiths.

2. The security border of the State of Israel will be located in the Jordan Valley, in the broadest meaning of that term.

3. Changes which will include the addition of Gush Etzion, Efrat, Beitar and other communities, most of which are in the area east of what was the “Green Line,” prior to the Six Day War.

4. The establishment of blocs of settlements in Judea and Samaria, like the one in Gush Katif.”

Rabin had stated in The Australian newspaper on May 27, 1985:

“The Palestinians should have a sovereign State which includes most of the Palestinians. It should be Jordan with a considerable part of the West Bank and Gaza. East of the Jordan River there is enough room to settle the Palestinian refugees. One tiny State between Israel and Jordan will solve nothing. It will be a time bomb.”

Supporting Rabin’s proposals would stand Gantz in good stead as he seeks to form a Government of National Unity and — failing that — in the upcoming election that would hopefully end Israel’s current precarious political situation.


Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog.