Rivlin must cook up a US$220 million Netanyahu-Liberman omelette

[Published 13 October 2019]


An opening to ending Israel’s election deadlock has come after Yisrael Beiteinu faction chairman Oded Forer sent a formal letter to the head of the Likud’s coalition negotiating team, Yariv Levin, on 11 October, asking for negotiations on the policy guidelines for the next government.

Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin should exploit this opening to try and save Israel going to a third election in twelve months — by summoning Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Yisrael Beitienu head Avigdor Liberman to the President’s residence for negotiations on forming a Netanyahu-Liberman coalition Government.

President Rivlin would be shirking his responsibility as President if he allowed a third election to take place.

Rivlin’s attempt to get Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz to form a Government of National Unity failed quite spectacularly and in a very short time.

Rivlin’s failure was quickly followed by:

1. Netanyahu and Gantz failing to reach any agreement in further negotiations

2. Netanyahu and Liberman holding a meeting for only one hour that reportedly went nowhere

3. Netanyahu and Gantz both rejecting a proposal by Liberman very shortly after he proposed it.

A third election at an estimated cost of US$220 million — and the possibility it could also end in deadlock — constitutes political suicide.

President Rivlin would be shirking his responsibility as President if he allowed a third election to take place without having made this last ditch attempt to stop Israel’s descent into another bout of electoral madness.

The best prospects of forming a new Government involve a coalition between the Right Wing parties holding 55 votes and Yisrael Beiteinu holding 8 votes — enough to create the 61 votes needed to form Government for the next four years.

Avoiding a third election has increased exponentially following these recent international developments that have occurred since Israel’s second indecisive election on September 17:

1. Turkey’s invasion of northern Syria

2. The Kurds in Syria becoming exposed to being massacred by the invading Turkish forces

3. The Kurds in Turkey being caught up in any ensuing conflict

4. President Trump showing no inclination to intervene to prevent the Turkish invasion of northern Syria

5. The explosion of an Iranian state oil company tanker near the Saudi port city of Jeddah,

6. President Trump ordering 3,000 troops and weapons to Saudi Arabia in a message of deterrence to Iran

7. The further postponement of the release of President Trump’s deal of the century

8. The Democrats headlong rush to impeach President Trump

Any deterioration in these potentially disastrous situations could have serious implications for Israel’s safety and security. Israel must have a government in place ready to deal with their consequences.

Liberman’s conditions for joining a Netanyahu-led government containing ultra-orthodox religious parties have been publicly announced by Liberman.

Israeli voters have clearly expressed their preference for a right wing coalition Government led by Netanyahu — 1,973,246 votes — over a left wing coalition Government led by Gantz — 1,556,491 votes.

Rivlin — armed with Forer’s letter to Levin and Israeli voters clearly-expressed wishes — has been given sufficient justification to get Netanyahu and Liberman — for whom 310154 Israelis voted — to sit down and negotiate Liberman’s list of demands for forming a new Netanyahu-Liberman Government before Netanyahu’s mandate to do so expires on October 24.

Neither Netanyahu nor Liberman should have any expectation that they are going to emerge from the President’s residence with a complete victory for the positions they might initially take when they first sit down with the President.

Rivlin’s prestige and canny political skills could just get them to an agreed compromise.

Rivlin will have earned three stars from the Michelin Guide — and the gratitude of Israeli voters — if he succeeds in cooking-up a Netanyahu-Liberman omelette using a recipe whose ingredients are acceptable to both of them.

Netanyahu and Liberman must stop Israel's third election this year

[Published 4 October 2019]

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Liberman have finally met — albeit for just one hour — to discuss the possibility of the 63 votes they control being converted into Israel’s next Government.

It is hard to believe that having made that long-awaited breakthrough, they would be so foolish and obstinate to refuse to compromise their differences to prevent the Israeli electorate going through a third election within nine months.

The direct cost to the Israeli government for new elections, including a budget for the central elections committee and state funding for parties running in the elections, is estimated at NIS 800 million ($220 million).

The greatest loss, however, arises due to the fact that election day is an official vacation day in Israel. The country’s daily GDP is approximately NIS 5 billion ($1.4 billion), and according to conservative estimates, election day represents a loss to the Israeli economy of some NIS 1.5 billion ($410 million).

Liberman has publicly laid out his demands for joining the Right-Wing bloc headed by Netanyahu:

1. Passage of the ultra-orthodox military service law, as drafted by Liberman ;

2. civil marriage; [permitting] conversions by local rabbis;

3. re-approving egalitarian prayer at the Western Wall;

4. requiring ultra-orthodox schools to teach secular subjects

5.public transportation and the opening of mini-markets on the Sabbath.These two issues would be left up to local authorities in every municipality, based on who lives in any given town.

Liberman warned:

“We won’t accept anything less than this, even if it means sitting in the opposition.”

Crunch time has arrived.

Liberman has to adopt a more flexible approach and accept less than the “all or nothing” stance he has adopted.

Netanyahu is now in a much stronger position politically to accept Liberman’s major deal-breaking demand last April for passage of Liberman’s ultra-orthodox military service draft law. More new votes were seemingly cast in September by Liberman voters for this proposal (136684) than against it by voters for the religious parties (91188).

Civil marriage and conversions by local rabbis is a curly problem that could be sent to a Committee to consider and come up with recommendations.

Re-approving the Western Wall arrangements should be a formality.

Requiring ultra-orthodox schools to teach secular subjects could begin with pilot projects in specified schools in particular areas where the ultra-orthodox community does not constitute the majority of the population residing there Ira- and perhaps after gaining approval by a majority of parents whose children attend such schools.

There is a pathway to agreement on these issues that can be achieved with goodwill and a readiness to compromise in recognition of a greater objective, sparing the Israeli electorate another election and the possibility another deadlock will result.

Israel is surrounded by enemies — especially Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria and Hamas in Gaza that could be tempted to exploit the fractured nature of Israel’s current political circumstances.

There are pressing political issues awaiting Israel’s next Government, most notably negotiations on President Trump’s deal of the century and Netanyahu’s election promise to annex large parts of the West Bank.

Ending this state of suspended uncertainty has now been thrust on the shoulders of Netanyahu and Liberman - following the failure of Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz to achieve a deal they could both live with.

Netanyahu and Liberman would do well to heed the sage advice contained in the Ethics of the Fathers:

“Do not seek greatness for yourself, and do not lust for honor”

Achieving greatness and honor together by compromising their political expectations will secure Netanyahu and Liberman a special place in the annals of Israel.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Knifing Netanyahu could sink release of Trump peace plan

[Published 27 November 2019]

From most reports Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will soon be finished politically — forced to resign as Israel’s longest serving Prime Minister to defend three indictments levelled against him by Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit.

The first indictment involves bribery, fraud and breach of trust in Case 4000 — the Bezeq-Walla Affair; the second — fraud and breach of trust in Case 1000 — the Illegal Gifts Affair; and the third for fraud and breach of trust in Case 2000 — the Yediot Ahronot-Israel Hayom Affair.

One consequence of Netanyahu’s exit from politics — if it does happen — could see President Trump having second thoughts about releasing his long-awaited and eagerly-anticipated deal of the century to end the 100 years old Arab-Jewish conflict (deal) - which Trump had already promised to release after Israel’s next Government is formed.

A government without Netanyahu at the helm would pose a serious problem for Trump, who has forged a unique relationship of respect and mutual trust with Netanyahu that no other Israeli politician enjoys.

Trump is not in the business of seeing anything he proposes fail — especially this deal.

Trump does not want to join former Presidents Reagan, Carter, Clinton, Bush and Obama – whose well-intentioned proposals to resolve the long-running Arab-Jewish conflict have ended up in the garbage bin of history.

Trump has carefully crafted the drip release of his deal over the last two years — possibly in close consultation with Netanyahu — to give Israel the best hope it has ever had of finally reaching agreement with purposeful Arab negotiators. Trump’s failure so far to find such Arab negotiators has been a major factor in delaying the deal’s release.

The Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) has made it abundantly clear that it will not negotiate with Israel on Trump’s deal under any circumstances.

Egypt and Jordan — the only two Arab states to have signed peace treaties with Israel in 1979 and 1994 — and the last two Arab States to have occupied Gaza and Judea and Samaria between 1948 and 1967 — still seem to be bucking at announcing their readiness to negotiate with Israel on Trump’s deal.

Trump will seemingly not release the final details of his deal unless he first has Arab assurances to bona fide negotiate with Israel in translating those details into binding commitments to end the long-running conflict.

Trump will not release his deal only to find it is dead in the water because no Arab negotiators will sit down with Israel.

Trump is interested in winning — not losing before he even jumps out of the starting gate.

Trump will need to now be satisfied that any new Israeli Prime Minister possesses the same views as Netanyahu on the issues Trump has already identified as integral elements of his deal:

1. extending Israeli sovereignty to Jewish towns and villages in Judea and Samaria,

2. declaring Jerusalem to be Israel’s eternal capital

3. recognising Israeli sovereignty in the Golan Heights

Trump will now also need to be assured that any new Israeli Prime Minister will not call on Trump to renew America’s payments to UNRWA and UNESCO, to reopen the PLO Embassy in Washington or resume funding to the PLO.

Netanyahu’s uncertain political future — and the absence of Arab negotiators ready to stand up and be counted — could see Trump’s deal being put on the political backburner until Trump’s bid for re-election for another four years is known on November 3, 2020.

Knifing Netanyahu introduces yet another wild card that could delay peace between Arabs and Jews — leaving the failed leadership of the PLO cheering and heaving huge sighs of relief.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Netanyahu and Liberman could cut deal if Rivlin plan fails

[Published 24 September 2019]

President Rivlin's decision to bring Bibi Netanyahu and Benny Gantz together to see if a Government of National Unity can be formed makes sense in the extraordinary situation that has followed Israel’s elections on 17 September.

Once again neither the Left nor Right wing blocs have won the 61 seats required to form Government.

Rivlin’s proposal however could well founder on the aspirations of Netanyahu, Gantz and Yair Lapid to be the Prime Minister of any such Government and whether that position should be rotated and in what order.

During the April 2019 election campaign - Gantz and Lapid ran under a rotation agreement that would have seen Gantz serve as prime minister for the first two years and eight months whilst Lapid took over for the remainder of the term. Their agreement was key to the merger of Gantz’s Israel Resilience Party with Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party to form the Blue and White Party.

In June 2019, Gantz and Lapid pledged they would keep their deal to rotate the premiership if they formed the next government after the September elections.

Now — after those inconclusive elections — Lapid has made this call at a Blue and White faction meeting:

“One person is preventing the formation of a liberal unity government. One person. When faced with the choice between what’s important for the country and what’s important for one person, the country comes first.”

Lapid was obviously referring to Netanyahu.

Is Lapid prepared — in the same spirit — to give up his entitlement to be Prime Minister to enable Gantz and Netanyahu to thrash out an agreement?

After that major problem is settled — infighting for positions in that Government would follow that would be fraught with personal rivalries and ambitions.

Paradoxically the election results have eased the path for Netanyahu and Liberman to form a Government with Netanyahu as its Prime Minister. The same problems of allocating portfolios in their 63-member coalition would remain — but would be far easier than dealing with 99 members in a coalition of National Unity. Bridging the Netanyahu-Liberman antipathy divide wouldn’t be easy either.

Liberman’s party did not form Government with 60 other members of the Right last April after Netanyahu refused to accept a bill drafted by Liberman calling for ultra-orthodox Jews to do military service. Netanyahu was captive to the ultra-orthodox Jews comprised in his then bloc who threatened to bolt if he wavered.

Liberman’s continuing insistence that his military service bill be legislated was countered by United Torah Judaism MK Yakov Asher declaring this the best possible get-out-the-vote campaign the religious parties could wish for.

The religious parties failed big time.

Netanyahu is now in an easier political position to agree to Liberman’s demand than he was in April — the latest voting results showing:

1. Liberman’s vote increased from 173,004 to 309,688 — an increase of 136,684.

2. The combined votes of the religious parties — Shas and United Torah Judaism — increased from 507,324 to 598,522 — an increase of only 91,198.

3. Likud’s vote decreased from 1,140,370 to 1,111,535 — a drop of 28,835

The turnout of ultra-orthodox voters opposing Liberman’s bill did not match the turnout of new voters supporting Liberman’s bill and those Likud voters changing their votes for possibly the same reason.

The religious parties are now on far weaker ground to oppose Liberman’s reform as they are locked in to a single negotiating bloc containing 55 members - presumably acting by majority vote.

Cutting a deal between Netanyahu and Liberman remains an option to prevent Israel going through this electoral agony for a third time if Rivlin’s call fails.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Israel, Jordan and Egypt must hop on Trump bandwagon to peace

[Published 21 November 2019]

President Trump has now delivered the missing piece in his plan to end the 100 years old Jewish-Arab conflict - providing the incentive necessary for Israel’s warring political parties to bury their hatchets and form a new Israeli Government within the next 21 days.

This unique opportunity for peace trumps the domestic differences that have prevented Israel’s political parties forming that new Government following the elections in April and September 2019.

Trump has been progressively signposting his roadmap for the last two years:

1. Moving the American Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem

2. Declaring Jerusalem as the capital of Israel

3. Closing down the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) Offices in Washington

4. Withdrawing American funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA)

5. Giving a substantial aid package to Jordan

6. Recognising Israeli sovereignty in the Golan Heights

7. Having Bahrain host the “Peace to Prosperity” workshop to discuss the economic part of Trump’s “deal of the century”

8. Flagging Israel’s right to retain at least some - but “unlikely all” - of the West Bank

Now Trump has made the end goal of his “deal of the century” very clear with the following statement issued by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo:

“Turning now to Israel, the Trump administration is reversing the Obama administration’s approach towards Israeli settlements.

US public statements on settlement activities in the West Bank have been inconsistent over decades. In 1978, the Carter administration categorically concluded that Israel’s establishment of civilian settlements was inconsistent with international law. However, in 1981, President Reagan disagreed with that conclusion and stated that he didn’t believe that the settlements were inherently illegal.

Subsequent administrations recognized that unrestrained settlement activity could be an obstacle to peace, but they wisely and prudently recognized that dwelling on legal positions didn’t advance peace. However, in December 2016, at the very end of the previous administration, Secretary Kerry changed decades of this careful, bipartisan approach by publicly reaffirming the supposed illegality of settlements.

After carefully studying all sides of the legal debate, this administration agrees with President Reagan. The establishment of Israeli civilian settlements in the West Bank is not per se inconsistent with international law.”

The right of Jews to live in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) for the purposes of reconstituting the Jewish National Home there has been enshrined in international law under article 6 of the 1922 Mandate for Palestine and article 80 of the 1945 United Nations Charter.

The United Nations, the European Union and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation have denied the legitimacy of these Jewish claims — emboldening the Arabs to claim 100% of these territories. Pompeo’s statement has quashed the Arabs’ claims.

One roadblock still remaining requires Trump to identify the Arab interlocutors prepared to stand up and negotiate with Israel on Trump’s plan.

Pompeo has given the PLO one last opportunity to join the negotiations with Israel.

“The United States encourages the Israelis and the Palestinians to resolve the status of Israeli settlements in the West Bank in any final status negotiations.”

The PLO had already unequivocally refused to negotiate on Trump’s plan and will continue to do so.

Trump should focus on Jordan and Egypt — the last two Arab States to have occupied Judea and Samaria (West Bank) and Gaza respectively between 1948 and 1967 — to fill the void.

Israel needs a new Government within the next 21 days or face another expensive and debilitating election in March 2020 — just as Trump is bidding for re-election — when he might consider it inopportune to release his plan.

Israel, Jordan and Egypt must hop on the Trump bandwagon now.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

European Union bites off more than it can chew in Judea and Samaria

[Published 19 November 2019]

France has set in train a diplomatic and politically-motivated semantic assault on Israel that could ultimately see the European Union biting off more than it can chew.

A press release noted that the Court of Justice of the European Union in Luxembourg on 12 November had found in favour of France’s determined effort to protect unwitting French consumers being possibly misled when they buy cheese, wine or other produce sold by Jews originating in Judea and Samaria:

“… the Grand Chamber of the Court ruled that foodstuffs originating in territories occupied by the State of Israel must bear the indication of their territory of origin, accompanied, where those foodstuffs come from a locality or a group of localities constituting an Israeli settlement within that territory, by the indication of that provenance.”

This decision lays down stringent labelling requirements for Jewish producers in Judea and Samaria to ensure their products were kosher enough to be sold into the European Union.

The sham that this would prevent consumers from believing such products were “Made in Israel” took on a far more sinister political resonance as the press release continued:

“as regards the issue whether the indication ‘Israeli settlement’ is mandatory, the Court first of all underlined that the settlements established in some of the territories occupied by the State of Israel are characterised by the fact that they give concrete expression to a policy of population transfer conducted by that State outside its territory, in violation of the rules of general international humanitarian law. The Court then held that the omission of that indication, with the result that only the territory of origin is indicated, might mislead consumers. Consumers have no way of knowing, in the absence of any information capable of enlightening them in that respect, that a foodstuff comes from a locality or a set of localities constituting a settlement established in one of those territories in breach of the rules of international humanitarian law. The Court noted that, under Regulation No 1169/2011, the provision of information to consumers must enable them to make informed choices, with regard not only to health, economic, environmental and social considerations, but also to ethical considerations and considerations relating to the observance of international law. The Court underlined in that respect that such considerations could influence consumers’ purchasing decisions”.

All this pompous gobbledygook being required for labelling the source of products made in territory disputed between Jews and Arabs for the last 100 years is deeply disturbing.

There is no appeal from this decision.

The European Union could be in a real political bind as a result.

The labelling requirements introduced by the European Union in 2011 and interpreted in 2015 has led it down this disastrous path promising only ridicule and contempt.

To be consistent and not be subjected to charges that it is deliberately targeting Jews and inciting Jew-hatred – the European Union needs to insist on similar stringent labelling requirements being immediately applied on goods originating from more than 150 disputed territories around the world.

Alternatively - the European Union could get itself out of this embarrassing labelling war and PR disaster by simply requiring goods originating from Israeli settlements to state “Product of Judea” or “Product of Samaria”

Judea and Samaria - the historic and geographic terms used for the disputed territories for the last 3000 years - were re-labelled the “The West Bank” by Jordan in 1950 - and enthusiastically embraced by the European Union.

The chickens from Judea and Samaria have come home to roost.

Truth in labelling by the feckless European Union is long overdue.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Release of Trump deal could break Israel elections deadlock

[Published 13 November 2019]

The release of President Trump’s long-awaited and eagerly-anticipated deal of the century could be just the catalyst required to persuade Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beitenu bloc of 8 members to join Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s bloc of 55 members to form Israel’s next Government.

Trump has previously announced that he would not present his plan to resolve the Arab-Jewish conflict until a new Israeli government was formed – but Trump’s position could be dramatically altered as the current political uncertainty in Israel seems to be leading to a third election being called within the space of 12 months.

New Right chairwoman Ayelet Shaked has been trying in the past week - unsuccessfully so far - to create a situation that would bring Liberman’s bloc and Netanyahu’s bloc together to enable a new government to be sworn in.

Shaked has reportedly met with Liberman. Afterwards - she also met with United Torah Judaism chairman Yaakov Litzman and Degel Hatorah chairman Moshe Gafni. These meetings focused on a compromise on issues of religion and state - and especially the Draft Law requiring ultra-orthodox youth to do military service - which would allow the parties to sit together in government - as was the case throughout much of the term of the last-elected Government.

Both sides reportedly were willing to listen but found it too difficult to compromise. Liberman’s side is interested in recording an achievement on the Draft Law - while the ultra-orthodox seek to prevent the law from becoming too sharply-worded.

President Trump must be champing at the bit at the continuing failure of the major political parties in Israel – Likud and Blue and White – to form a Government of National Unity – that would have heralded the release of Trump’s peace proposals in September.

Trump would be equally confused by the fact that the Netanyahu and Liberman blocs have been unable to coalesce into Israel’s next Government - despite the fact that they garnered 2,238,400 votes against the centrist and left parties who could only manage to get 1,556,491 votes.

There are five compelling reasons for Trump to release his peace proposals within the next month – rather than wait for another Israeli election to be held in March or April 2020:

1. Trump could be involved in fighting impeachment proceedings in the Senate next year as the House Intelligence Committee controlled by the Democrats continues its campaign against him.

2. Trump will be in full election mode in March/April as he seeks re-election as President in November 2020

3. Trump needs as much time as he can possibly get to promote, fully explain and expand on his ideas aimed at convincing Jews and Arabs that it is time to bury the hatchet after 100 years of unending conflict. This could involve countless hours in meetings and negotiations with Arab and Israeli leaders.

4.A third Israeli election could result in another deadlocked result and indefinitely delay the release of Trump’s plans until after the 2020 US Presidential elections

5. Trump’s plan would focus on the need for Israel to get its act together and form a properly constituted Government to deal with and negotiate on Trump’s proposals.

The priority of trying to reach an historic agreement with their Arab neighbours would surely supersede the domestic political wheeling and dealing that has so far marked Israel’s inability to fashion a Government.

Any attack on Israel by its enemies could be another shock to jolt Israel out of its current electoral complacency.

The Israeli Government that would emerge could be either a National Unity Government or a Netanyahu–Liberman Government.

Either would be preferable to the current standoff and political uncertainty.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog