Israel now needs miracle to set secure and recognized boundaries

[Published 17 December 2019]

History will not kindly recall Israel’s power-hungry politicians who have forced a third election within twelve months on Israeli voters at a direct cost of another US$135 million.

The politicians’ inability to form a Government of National Unity is derelict — especially after Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin entreated them to do so.

The Jewish calendar is replete with both happy and sad times in the history of the Jewish people spanning thousands of years — faithfully remembered on each anniversary.

The period between 18 November 2019 and 11 December 2019 — which I call The Time of Missed Opportunity — could qualify for inclusion in that calendar.

November 18 marks the day US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared that the US did not regard Jewish settlement in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) as being inconsistent with international law.

December 11 marks the last day a Government of National Unity could have been formed to finally set Israel’s secure and recognized boundaries under Security Council Resolution 242 — within which the Jewish people would reconstitute the Jewish National Home 100 years after the San Remo Convention laid the groundwork on April 25, 1920.

Israel and the Jewish World have been divided as to where those boundaries should be — particularly since Judea and Samaria (the disputed territories) were conquered by Israel in the 1967 Six Day War enabling Jews to return and live there after having been expelled and driven out in 1948 by six invading Arab armies.

Israelis espouse views ranging from extending Israeli sovereignty to all the disputed territories to sovereignty over none. Compromise somewhere in between could have possibly been found with a Government of National Unity making consensus decisions acceptable to the overwhelming majority of Israel’s population.

Two deadlocked Israeli elections in April and September 2019 have exposed a very disturbing political rift among Israeli voters as Israel confronts its Arab neighbours who seek to destroy it — and its international enemies at the United Nations who seek to deny that Jews have any legal right to live in the disputed territories guaranteed by article 6 of the League of Nations Mandate for Palestine and article 80 of the United Nations Charter.

This Jewish divisiveness has a bitter parallel in Jewish history — the Bible recounting that on the succession of Solomon’s son, Rehoboam, around 930 BCE, the land of Israel split into two kingdoms: the Kingdom of Israel (including the cities of Nablus and Samaria) in the north and the Kingdom of Judah (containing Jerusalem) in the south. These kingdoms remained separate states for over two hundred years.

Yuval Diskin, Israel’s former internal security chief, warned in 2015 that this could happen again:

“The two-state solution is becoming true for the Jews: The State of Judea is being built de facto side by side with the State of Israel. These are two nations whose differences are eclipsing their commonalities, a condition that is growing irreversible.

The State of Judea has different standards, different approaches to democracy, and it has two justice systems, one for Jews (Israeli law) and the other for Palestinians (martial law). Whether we want it or not, these two justice systems have divergent measures to adjudicate identical offenses”.

Israel’s politicians — in rejecting a Government of National Unity and opting for a third election — have not acted in the national interest. They have chosen to continue political division and pursue personal ambition to achieve political power — rather than seeking national unity.

A third deadlocked election is the miracle and opportunity Israel needs to enable a Government of National Unity to set Israel’s boundaries.

Author’s note: The cartoon – commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators – whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog.

Trump, Netanyahu and Gantz can end in 2020 what began in 1920

[Published 9 December 2019]

Designating the territory for reconstitution of the Jewish National Home in Palestine – begun with the San Remo Convention and Treaty of Sevres in April and August 1920 respectively – could finally be completed 100 years later in 2020.

Achieving this long-overdue outcome will require Israel to form a Government of National Unity by 11 December 2019 - headed initially by Benjamin Netanyahu as Prime Minister for a minimum term of six months - enabling the new Parliament to ratify those areas of Judea and Samaria to which Israeli sovereignty will be extended as delineated by the Government.

This Unity Government should ideally hold at least 80 of the 120 seats in the Knesset so that there is an overwhelming majority of Israel’s elected politicians supporting any determinative decisions made by the Knesset in relation to Judea and Samaria.

Israel has been presented with this amazing opportunity following President Trump’s Secretary for State - Mike Pompeo - issuing this declaration on 19 November 2019:

“After carefully studying all sides of the legal debate, this administration agrees with President Reagan. The establishment of Israeli civilian settlements in the West Bank is not per se inconsistent with international law.”

Pompeo’s statement followed US Ambassador to Israel – David Friedman – stating on 8 June 2019:

“Under certain circumstances I think Israel has the right to retain some, but unlikely all, of the West Bank.”

Friedman had then cautioned:

“We really don’t have a view until we understand how much, on what terms, why does it make sense, why is it good for Israel, why is it good for the region, why does it not create more problems than it solves. These are all things that we’d want to understand, and I don’t want to prejudge.”

Friedman will get the answers with the formation of Israel’s Government of National Unity – which hangs delicately by a thread and can vanish into thin air if it does not gain some oxygen by midnight on 11 December. Fresh elections on 3 March 2020 - for the third time in a year - will then become mandatory and this wonderful opportunity will have flown out the window.

It would be a national disgrace and betrayal of Israelis and Jews worldwide if Israel’s political parties allowed their political differences and personal rivalries to stymie the opportunity to determine the area within which the reconstitution of the Jewish National Home will be mandated after 100 years of fighting many wars and diplomatic battles.

Israel’s extended boundaries would be determined in coordination with President Trump and ratified over the next 6 months.

The fact that no Arab interlocutors will participate in any such decision-making process is regrettable. However continuing Arab intransigence in refusing to commit to negotiate with Israel on Trump’s still unreleased deal of the century - despite Trump’s best efforts to involve their participation in such decision-making with Israel – leaves Trump with no other option.

A Unity Government could be reasonably expected to agree to extend Israel’s sovereignty to about 75% of Area C – about 45% of Judea and Samaria.

Gantz reportedly told close associates he is:

“ready to make tough decisions in the coming days”

Hopefully Gantz as Deputy Prime Minister can rise to the occasion and allow Netanyahu – enjoying a unique relationship with Trump - to head a Government of National Unity to grab this once in a hundred years opportunity.

An unprecedented – almost miraculous - confluence of events has emerged since Israel’s second-deadlocked September elections - that cries out for a national consensus and historic response by Trump, Netanyahu and Gantz.

Seize the moment – seize the day….

Author’s note: The cartoon – commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators – whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog.

Trump ends Arab preoccupation with occupation in Judea and Samaria

[Published 3 December 2019]

President Trump’s decision to recognise the right of Jews to live in Judea and Samaria (West Bank) ends a long-running Arab political campaign accompanied by murderous terrorist attacks to drive the Jews out under the Arab mantra - “End the Occupation”. This mantra had become the Arabs’ rallying cry over the last 53 years as they sought to assert sovereignty over every square meter of this hotly-disputed territory.

These three little words managed to turn Israel’s miraculous victory in the 1967 Six Day War in Judea and Samaria — that saw the Jewish People’s triumphal return to the heart of the biblical and ancestral land of its forefathers — as something to be reviled and reversed.

Those mouthing the mantra did not seek to have the “occupation” ended in favour of Jordan — the previous Arab occupier between 1948 and 1967.

Rather they were insisting it all be given to another group — the “Palestinians” — who did not exist:

1. In 1922 – when the League of Nations created the Mandate for Palestine

2. In 1937 - when the Peel Commission issued its Report

3. In 1947 - when the United Nations recommended the partition of western Palestine into an Arab State and a Jewish State.

4. Between 1948-1964 — when Judea and Samaria had been ethnically cleansed of every single Jew who had been living there prior to 1948

The “Palestinians” only first saw the light of day in 1964 when the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) Charter was promulgated and Article 1 declared:
"Palestine is the homeland of the Arab Palestinian people; it is an indivisible part of the Arab homeland, and the Palestinian people are an integral part of the Arab nation".

In 2019 the PLO’s legitimacy to rule the “Palestinians” is being challenged by Hamas. Reconciliation between these two competing power seekers is still not in prospect after 13 years of bitter internecine conflict — nor are elections anywhere in sight.

Jordan now sits on the sideline having abandoned any claim to Judea and Samaria (the West Bank) in 1988. Jordan shows no interest in attempting to try and restore — as far as is now possible — the status quo existing in these areas Jordan ruled on June 4, 1967.

President Trump is waiting patiently in the wings ready to release his “deal of the century” when Israel’s next Government is eventually formed.

It is surely time for a new mantra: “Right the Wrongs” to enter into the lexicon of international diplomacy in the Middle East — to replace the racist and apartheid “end the occupation”.

The wrongs are the failure of the United Nations to acknowledge that:

1. the provisions of Article 80 of the United Nations Charter reserve to the Jewish people the right to reconstitute the Jewish National Home in Judea and Samaria in accordance with the provisions laid down in article 6 of the League of Nations Mandate for Palestine

2. Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338 remain the only internationally accepted bases for resolving the conflict in former Palestine.

The United Nations failure to insist on these binding tenets of international law being universally acknowledged has proved to be a major stumbling block in resolving the Jewish-Arab conflict.

Bowing to extreme pressure from the Arab League and the Organization of the Islamic Conference — the United Nations has succumbed to a myriad of General Assembly resolutions that have buried these pillars of international law. The sooner they again become the foundations for peace — the sooner some sanity will return to the Middle East.

Trump’s decisiveness has amazingly ended 53 wasted years of Arab preoccupation with occupation.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Rivlin must cook up a US$220 million Netanyahu-Liberman omelette

[Published 13 October 2019]


An opening to ending Israel’s election deadlock has come after Yisrael Beiteinu faction chairman Oded Forer sent a formal letter to the head of the Likud’s coalition negotiating team, Yariv Levin, on 11 October, asking for negotiations on the policy guidelines for the next government.

Israel’s President Reuven Rivlin should exploit this opening to try and save Israel going to a third election in twelve months — by summoning Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Yisrael Beitienu head Avigdor Liberman to the President’s residence for negotiations on forming a Netanyahu-Liberman coalition Government.

President Rivlin would be shirking his responsibility as President if he allowed a third election to take place.

Rivlin’s attempt to get Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz to form a Government of National Unity failed quite spectacularly and in a very short time.

Rivlin’s failure was quickly followed by:

1. Netanyahu and Gantz failing to reach any agreement in further negotiations

2. Netanyahu and Liberman holding a meeting for only one hour that reportedly went nowhere

3. Netanyahu and Gantz both rejecting a proposal by Liberman very shortly after he proposed it.

A third election at an estimated cost of US$220 million — and the possibility it could also end in deadlock — constitutes political suicide.

President Rivlin would be shirking his responsibility as President if he allowed a third election to take place without having made this last ditch attempt to stop Israel’s descent into another bout of electoral madness.

The best prospects of forming a new Government involve a coalition between the Right Wing parties holding 55 votes and Yisrael Beiteinu holding 8 votes — enough to create the 61 votes needed to form Government for the next four years.

Avoiding a third election has increased exponentially following these recent international developments that have occurred since Israel’s second indecisive election on September 17:

1. Turkey’s invasion of northern Syria

2. The Kurds in Syria becoming exposed to being massacred by the invading Turkish forces

3. The Kurds in Turkey being caught up in any ensuing conflict

4. President Trump showing no inclination to intervene to prevent the Turkish invasion of northern Syria

5. The explosion of an Iranian state oil company tanker near the Saudi port city of Jeddah,

6. President Trump ordering 3,000 troops and weapons to Saudi Arabia in a message of deterrence to Iran

7. The further postponement of the release of President Trump’s deal of the century

8. The Democrats headlong rush to impeach President Trump

Any deterioration in these potentially disastrous situations could have serious implications for Israel’s safety and security. Israel must have a government in place ready to deal with their consequences.

Liberman’s conditions for joining a Netanyahu-led government containing ultra-orthodox religious parties have been publicly announced by Liberman.

Israeli voters have clearly expressed their preference for a right wing coalition Government led by Netanyahu — 1,973,246 votes — over a left wing coalition Government led by Gantz — 1,556,491 votes.

Rivlin — armed with Forer’s letter to Levin and Israeli voters clearly-expressed wishes — has been given sufficient justification to get Netanyahu and Liberman — for whom 310154 Israelis voted — to sit down and negotiate Liberman’s list of demands for forming a new Netanyahu-Liberman Government before Netanyahu’s mandate to do so expires on October 24.

Neither Netanyahu nor Liberman should have any expectation that they are going to emerge from the President’s residence with a complete victory for the positions they might initially take when they first sit down with the President.

Rivlin’s prestige and canny political skills could just get them to an agreed compromise.

Rivlin will have earned three stars from the Michelin Guide — and the gratitude of Israeli voters — if he succeeds in cooking-up a Netanyahu-Liberman omelette using a recipe whose ingredients are acceptable to both of them.

Netanyahu and Liberman must stop Israel's third election this year

[Published 4 October 2019]

Prime Minister Netanyahu and Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Liberman have finally met — albeit for just one hour — to discuss the possibility of the 63 votes they control being converted into Israel’s next Government.

It is hard to believe that having made that long-awaited breakthrough, they would be so foolish and obstinate to refuse to compromise their differences to prevent the Israeli electorate going through a third election within nine months.

The direct cost to the Israeli government for new elections, including a budget for the central elections committee and state funding for parties running in the elections, is estimated at NIS 800 million ($220 million).

The greatest loss, however, arises due to the fact that election day is an official vacation day in Israel. The country’s daily GDP is approximately NIS 5 billion ($1.4 billion), and according to conservative estimates, election day represents a loss to the Israeli economy of some NIS 1.5 billion ($410 million).

Liberman has publicly laid out his demands for joining the Right-Wing bloc headed by Netanyahu:

1. Passage of the ultra-orthodox military service law, as drafted by Liberman ;

2. civil marriage; [permitting] conversions by local rabbis;

3. re-approving egalitarian prayer at the Western Wall;

4. requiring ultra-orthodox schools to teach secular subjects

5.public transportation and the opening of mini-markets on the Sabbath.These two issues would be left up to local authorities in every municipality, based on who lives in any given town.

Liberman warned:

“We won’t accept anything less than this, even if it means sitting in the opposition.”

Crunch time has arrived.

Liberman has to adopt a more flexible approach and accept less than the “all or nothing” stance he has adopted.

Netanyahu is now in a much stronger position politically to accept Liberman’s major deal-breaking demand last April for passage of Liberman’s ultra-orthodox military service draft law. More new votes were seemingly cast in September by Liberman voters for this proposal (136684) than against it by voters for the religious parties (91188).

Civil marriage and conversions by local rabbis is a curly problem that could be sent to a Committee to consider and come up with recommendations.

Re-approving the Western Wall arrangements should be a formality.

Requiring ultra-orthodox schools to teach secular subjects could begin with pilot projects in specified schools in particular areas where the ultra-orthodox community does not constitute the majority of the population residing there Ira- and perhaps after gaining approval by a majority of parents whose children attend such schools.

There is a pathway to agreement on these issues that can be achieved with goodwill and a readiness to compromise in recognition of a greater objective, sparing the Israeli electorate another election and the possibility another deadlock will result.

Israel is surrounded by enemies — especially Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria and Hamas in Gaza that could be tempted to exploit the fractured nature of Israel’s current political circumstances.

There are pressing political issues awaiting Israel’s next Government, most notably negotiations on President Trump’s deal of the century and Netanyahu’s election promise to annex large parts of the West Bank.

Ending this state of suspended uncertainty has now been thrust on the shoulders of Netanyahu and Liberman - following the failure of Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz to achieve a deal they could both live with.

Netanyahu and Liberman would do well to heed the sage advice contained in the Ethics of the Fathers:

“Do not seek greatness for yourself, and do not lust for honor”

Achieving greatness and honor together by compromising their political expectations will secure Netanyahu and Liberman a special place in the annals of Israel.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Knifing Netanyahu could sink release of Trump peace plan

[Published 27 November 2019]

From most reports Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will soon be finished politically — forced to resign as Israel’s longest serving Prime Minister to defend three indictments levelled against him by Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit.

The first indictment involves bribery, fraud and breach of trust in Case 4000 — the Bezeq-Walla Affair; the second — fraud and breach of trust in Case 1000 — the Illegal Gifts Affair; and the third for fraud and breach of trust in Case 2000 — the Yediot Ahronot-Israel Hayom Affair.

One consequence of Netanyahu’s exit from politics — if it does happen — could see President Trump having second thoughts about releasing his long-awaited and eagerly-anticipated deal of the century to end the 100 years old Arab-Jewish conflict (deal) - which Trump had already promised to release after Israel’s next Government is formed.

A government without Netanyahu at the helm would pose a serious problem for Trump, who has forged a unique relationship of respect and mutual trust with Netanyahu that no other Israeli politician enjoys.

Trump is not in the business of seeing anything he proposes fail — especially this deal.

Trump does not want to join former Presidents Reagan, Carter, Clinton, Bush and Obama – whose well-intentioned proposals to resolve the long-running Arab-Jewish conflict have ended up in the garbage bin of history.

Trump has carefully crafted the drip release of his deal over the last two years — possibly in close consultation with Netanyahu — to give Israel the best hope it has ever had of finally reaching agreement with purposeful Arab negotiators. Trump’s failure so far to find such Arab negotiators has been a major factor in delaying the deal’s release.

The Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) has made it abundantly clear that it will not negotiate with Israel on Trump’s deal under any circumstances.

Egypt and Jordan — the only two Arab states to have signed peace treaties with Israel in 1979 and 1994 — and the last two Arab States to have occupied Gaza and Judea and Samaria between 1948 and 1967 — still seem to be bucking at announcing their readiness to negotiate with Israel on Trump’s deal.

Trump will seemingly not release the final details of his deal unless he first has Arab assurances to bona fide negotiate with Israel in translating those details into binding commitments to end the long-running conflict.

Trump will not release his deal only to find it is dead in the water because no Arab negotiators will sit down with Israel.

Trump is interested in winning — not losing before he even jumps out of the starting gate.

Trump will need to now be satisfied that any new Israeli Prime Minister possesses the same views as Netanyahu on the issues Trump has already identified as integral elements of his deal:

1. extending Israeli sovereignty to Jewish towns and villages in Judea and Samaria,

2. declaring Jerusalem to be Israel’s eternal capital

3. recognising Israeli sovereignty in the Golan Heights

Trump will now also need to be assured that any new Israeli Prime Minister will not call on Trump to renew America’s payments to UNRWA and UNESCO, to reopen the PLO Embassy in Washington or resume funding to the PLO.

Netanyahu’s uncertain political future — and the absence of Arab negotiators ready to stand up and be counted — could see Trump’s deal being put on the political backburner until Trump’s bid for re-election for another four years is known on November 3, 2020.

Knifing Netanyahu introduces yet another wild card that could delay peace between Arabs and Jews — leaving the failed leadership of the PLO cheering and heaving huge sighs of relief.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog

Netanyahu and Liberman could cut deal if Rivlin plan fails

[Published 24 September 2019]

President Rivlin's decision to bring Bibi Netanyahu and Benny Gantz together to see if a Government of National Unity can be formed makes sense in the extraordinary situation that has followed Israel’s elections on 17 September.

Once again neither the Left nor Right wing blocs have won the 61 seats required to form Government.

Rivlin’s proposal however could well founder on the aspirations of Netanyahu, Gantz and Yair Lapid to be the Prime Minister of any such Government and whether that position should be rotated and in what order.

During the April 2019 election campaign - Gantz and Lapid ran under a rotation agreement that would have seen Gantz serve as prime minister for the first two years and eight months whilst Lapid took over for the remainder of the term. Their agreement was key to the merger of Gantz’s Israel Resilience Party with Lapid’s Yesh Atid Party to form the Blue and White Party.

In June 2019, Gantz and Lapid pledged they would keep their deal to rotate the premiership if they formed the next government after the September elections.

Now — after those inconclusive elections — Lapid has made this call at a Blue and White faction meeting:

“One person is preventing the formation of a liberal unity government. One person. When faced with the choice between what’s important for the country and what’s important for one person, the country comes first.”

Lapid was obviously referring to Netanyahu.

Is Lapid prepared — in the same spirit — to give up his entitlement to be Prime Minister to enable Gantz and Netanyahu to thrash out an agreement?

After that major problem is settled — infighting for positions in that Government would follow that would be fraught with personal rivalries and ambitions.

Paradoxically the election results have eased the path for Netanyahu and Liberman to form a Government with Netanyahu as its Prime Minister. The same problems of allocating portfolios in their 63-member coalition would remain — but would be far easier than dealing with 99 members in a coalition of National Unity. Bridging the Netanyahu-Liberman antipathy divide wouldn’t be easy either.

Liberman’s party did not form Government with 60 other members of the Right last April after Netanyahu refused to accept a bill drafted by Liberman calling for ultra-orthodox Jews to do military service. Netanyahu was captive to the ultra-orthodox Jews comprised in his then bloc who threatened to bolt if he wavered.

Liberman’s continuing insistence that his military service bill be legislated was countered by United Torah Judaism MK Yakov Asher declaring this the best possible get-out-the-vote campaign the religious parties could wish for.

The religious parties failed big time.

Netanyahu is now in an easier political position to agree to Liberman’s demand than he was in April — the latest voting results showing:

1. Liberman’s vote increased from 173,004 to 309,688 — an increase of 136,684.

2. The combined votes of the religious parties — Shas and United Torah Judaism — increased from 507,324 to 598,522 — an increase of only 91,198.

3. Likud’s vote decreased from 1,140,370 to 1,111,535 — a drop of 28,835

The turnout of ultra-orthodox voters opposing Liberman’s bill did not match the turnout of new voters supporting Liberman’s bill and those Likud voters changing their votes for possibly the same reason.

The religious parties are now on far weaker ground to oppose Liberman’s reform as they are locked in to a single negotiating bloc containing 55 members - presumably acting by majority vote.

Cutting a deal between Netanyahu and Liberman remains an option to prevent Israel going through this electoral agony for a third time if Rivlin’s call fails.

Author’s note: The cartoon — commissioned exclusively for this article — is by Yaakov Kirschen aka “Dry Bones”- one of Israel’s foremost political and social commentators — whose cartoons have graced the columns of Israeli and international media publications for decades. His cartoons can be viewed at Drybonesblog